Commodities Update Modelling the scale of the energy market disruption This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here... 9th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update How the new tariff backdrop affects Canada & Mexico In this Update, we answer some of the questions we have received on how the new US tariff regime (see here ) will impact Canada and Mexico. The big picture is that Canada and Mexico’s weighted-average... 25th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions & answers on the new US tariff regime The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than was the case under the IEEPA framework, although the difference will... 23rd February 2026 (Updated 24th February 2026) · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Glittering TSX unlikely to boost consumption by much There does not appear to have been any meaningful wealth effects on consumption from the skyrocketing TSX, partly because households have faced offsetting falls in house prices. We expect the TSX to... 19th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Feb. 2026) The housing market weakened sharply in January, with home sales and house prices both plunging. While the housing market has been struggling for some time, the record-breaking winter storm that hit... 18th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Insufficient defence spending plans won’t lift GDP growth The newly-planned rise in defence expenditure marks a much-needed shift from the Trudeau era but is still too small to sufficiently lift spending above 2% of GDP or generate significant multiplier... 4th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank in holding pattern awaiting CUSMA renegotiation The Bank of Canada’s largely-unchanged economic projections are similar to our own, although we think the slow pace of economic growth this year will help ease core price pressures sooner than... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank's surveys provide mixed messages for GDP and jobs There were some signs of life in the Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys, with the pick-up in the indicator of future sales suggesting that the outlook for GDP growth is much better than the... 19th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Jan. 2026) The housing market ended the year on a weak footing, with both sales and house prices continuing to fall. The outlook for this year is a little brighter, with tightening supply of new listings likely... 16th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Venezuelan oil only a small threat to Canadian output The likely increase in Venezuela’s oil output in the next few years will cause some pain for Canadian producers, but it is unlikely to have a major impact on GDP growth. 13th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Declining population weighing on unemployment The record decline in the population in the third quarter was mainly due to a sharp drop in international students at the start of the academic year, which will not be repeated. Nonetheless, the... 18th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Dec. 2025) The housing market weakened in November, with sales activity and house prices both recording declines. Even so, the further improvement in the sales-to-new-listing ratio raises our confidence that... 15th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank tempers hike expectations amid stronger labour market The Bank of Canada kept its key policy rate at the bottom of its 2.25% to 3.25% neutral range estimate today, as expected. While there was recognition from policymakers that the labour market had... 10th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Nov. 2025) October’s housing data were broadly positive, with sales and prices both up on the month. We expect falling starts and a lower path for the Bank’s policy rate than markets are pricing in to drive a... 18th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update New immigration targets may give the BoC further pause The government’s new immigration targets raise the risk that most forecasters, including the Bank of Canada, are overestimating the outlook for population growth. While that presents a downside risk... 10th November 2025 · 4 mins read
