Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Jun. 2026) The housing market showed firmer signs of improvement in May and, with oil prices dropping back sharply in the past week, there is now a lower chance that the Bank of Canada will be forced to spoil... 16th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada to remain on hold this year The slightly dovish shift in language from the Bank of Canada today provides support to our forecast that it will leave interest rates unchanged this year. 10th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (May 2026) There were some encouraging signs of stabilisation in the headline housing market indicators for April, but the further decline in the sales-to-new listing ratio and recent rise in fixed mortgage... 15th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Assessing the effects of an extreme war scenario In this Update, we explore an extreme scenario in which the Iran war escalates beyond the assumptions in our published baseline and adverse scenarios. With Brent crude jumping higher and staying at... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank admits higher growth and oil prices could require hikes The hawkish messaging surrounding the Bank of Canada’s decision to leave interest rates on hold, paired with its revised projections for higher growth this year and next, mean there are growing upside... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Apr 2026) The hawkish messaging surrounding the Bank of Canada’s decision to leave interest rates on hold, paired with its updated projections for higher growth this year and next, make us slightly more nervous... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Improved fiscal situation but hurdles lie ahead Higher revenues on the back of elevated oil prices and stronger economic growth were behind downward revisions to the budget deficit projections in the Spring Economic Update (SEU). While the economic... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys show war putting nascent recovery at risk The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys show that easing concern among firms and households regarding trade tensions have been swiftly replaced by fresh anxieties about falling activity and... 20th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Apr. 2026) The housing market continued to struggle in March and the recent rebound in fixed mortgage rates, driven by the spike in oil prices, suggests that house prices will fall further in the coming months. 16th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The economic consequences of a tax on Hormuz trade A tax on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be unlikely to have major near-term implications for global energy markets, trade or wider economic activity. But depending on how it is structured... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi Attacks? While the direct effect of renewed strikes on shipping in the Red Sea on aggregate world trade is likely to be limited, the impact on Asian economies that rely more heavily on oil imports from Saudi... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank cautiously pushes back against rate hike expectations The Bank of Canada sounded marginally dovish while keeping its key policy rate at 2.25% today, stating that the growth outlook had worsened and downplaying the risks of second-round effects from... 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Mar. 2026) There is no relief in sight for the troubled housing market, with the spike in global oil prices likely to push up mortgage rates in the coming weeks. That has led us to downgrade our forecast for... 17th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update What do higher oil prices mean for Canada? Higher oil prices are positive for the Canadian economy and will boost inflation but, unless prices rise significantly further and stay there for several months, we doubt the Bank of Canada would... 11th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
