Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is likely to result in slower growth in 2024. Inflation will continue to rise and further interest rate hikes lie in store. In contrast, downturns across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) now appear to be bottoming out and we think that activity will recover over the coming quarters. With last year’s inflation shock unwinding, a monetary easing cycle is taking shape. We expect the Czech and Romanian central banks to follow Hungary and Poland in starting easing cycles in the first half of next year. That said, we think policy will be eased a bit less than investors expect in CEE over the next two years.
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