US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun.) The improvement in housing starts in June was further evidence that the housing recovery is holding up even as the wider economic recovery has lost a considerable amount of momentum. 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus How much lower will the homeownership rate get? Over the next few years, it’s plausible that tight credit, subdued confidence and many more foreclosures will drive the homeownership rate down to 64%, from 65.4% now. Over a longer horizon, the case... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed could launch its own "funding for lending" scheme Joining the dots, it is becoming clear that the Fed, and its Chairman Ben Bernanke in particular, are considering launching a US version of the Bank of England's new Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS)... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bernanke acknowledges slowdown, but no QE3 hint Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged in his congressional testimony today that the incoming economic data had been "generally disappointing", but offerred no hint that the FOMC was close to... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (May) The modest 0.4% m/m decline in manufacturing sales values in May was entirely due to the fall in the sale of petroleum and coal products. In volume terms, though, overall sales actually nudged higher... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada unwilling to throw in towel Today's Bank of Canada policy statement showed that it is unwilling to throw in the towel on its previous statements that interest rates may need to rise, from the current 1%. Even so, the Bank's... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jun.) Consumer prices were unchanged in June and the annual inflation rate remained at 1.7%, underlining that the Fed can afford to focus its monetary policy on the slowdown in the real economy. Even though... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The various monetary aggregates show broad money growth is both strong and stable which, at the margin, makes a third round of quantitative easing look less warranted. In contrast, our own M3 measure... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is negative equity a positive for the housing recovery? The reluctance of homeowners who are in negative equity to sell their home and realise a loss is one explanation for the sharp fall in the visible inventory over the past few years. Nevertheless... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jul.) & Producer Prices (Jun.) The latest confidence data suggest that although consumers remain cautious, at least they aren't panicking. Elsewhere, the modest 0.1% m/m increase in producer prices in June is another illustration... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth likely slowed in Q2 Canada's economy likely grew by a more modest 1.7% in the second quarter, down from the 1.9% pace recorded in each of the two quarters before that. We had expected GDP growth of 2.2% annualised, but... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Bernanke to take centre stage This week's congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be closely watched for hints that the FOMC is any closer to launching a third round of large-scale asset purchases. Even though... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House prices are on a streak but may slow in second half Annualised growth on the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic house price indices over the past three months stands at 6.2% and 9% respectively. However, price growth may moderate in the second half of the year... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six reasons not to panic about US grain prices Fears of the “worst drought in the US in 25 years” have led to a spike in US grain prices and understandably added to concerns about another global food inflation shock. However, there are at least... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) May's 0.6% m/m decline in export volumes together with downward revisions to previous months indicate that second-quarter exports declined, a significantly weaker result than our earlier assumption... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (May) The modest narrowing in the trade deficit to $48.7bn in May, from $50.6bn, was mainly due to a price-related drop in the cost of imported oil, so there is no reason to believe that second-quarter real... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
