US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May) May’s 0.4% m/m rise in our seasonally-adjusted measure of CoreLogic house prices marks the fifth successive month in which prices have increased. While the recent strong pace of monthly house price... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Moderate consumption growth may not last We calculate that, after falling by 0.8% m/m in April, retail sales volumes rebounded strongly in May. In addition, recent employment gains and lower gasoline prices likely supported retail sales in... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) April's 0.3% m/m increase in GDP, thanks to a rebound in the volatile mining sector, was slightly stronger than consensus expectations (0.2% m/m) and supports our view that Canada's economy grew... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What effect will Iran sanctions have on oil prices? We maintain our view that the imminent tightening of Western sanctions on Iran is unlikely to have anywhere near as large an impact on global oil prices as many had feared. Demand is weakening and... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Food inflation to continue to fall despite corn price spike The recent jump in US corn prices has led to fears of an upturn in world food inflation. However, agricultural prices in general are still much lower than they were a year ago, and even the surge in... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update No reason to fear rise in US net external liabilities The sharp deterioration in America’s net international investment position last year could be alarming as this is a key indicator of future financial crises. But a closer inspection shows that the US... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is something amiss with seasonally adjusted house prices? Problems with the seasonal adjustment process, caused by the unusually high share of distressed sales in recent years, may be giving a misleading impression of the strength of house prices over the... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (Apr.) April's payroll survey data, which showed a strong increase in average weekly earnings and a modest gain in employment, point to solid second-quarter wages and salaries growth of around 5.0%... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Past the worst? Our econometric model suggests that at least some of the recent softening in jobs growth was reversed in June, with non-farm payroll employment rising by around 125,000. That would be almost twice as... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (May) The stagnation in durable goods orders in recent months is a clear sign that, in response to the easing in global demand, America’s industrial recovery is running out of steam. 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Emerging European dollar bonds likely to lose their shine Despite the escalation of the crisis in the euro-zone, which has taken a heavy toll on bonds issued by troubled governments within the region, the dollar-denominated sovereign debt of emerging market... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Plunging gasoline prices to fuel real consumption A further fall in gasoline prices to close to $3 a gallon, from a recent peak of $4, will provide a near-term kick to real consumption growth just at a time when it appears to be fading fast. But a... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The fourth consecutive monthly fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence, to 62.0 in June from 64.4 in May, is a clear indication that the turmoil in equity prices remains a drag on... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar likely to fall further The recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar is likely to continue this year and next. Our reasons for thinking so are the prospects of further declines in commodity prices and lower expectations... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Apr.) The recent strong upwards momentum in house prices may not be sustained for much longer. Nevertheless, 2012 should mark not only the end of the US house price downturn, but the first year since 2006... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (May) Despite the unusually high price of new homes relative to their pre-owned equivalents, new home sales rose strongly in May. The implication appears to be that Americans are becoming more willing to... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
