US Economics Weekly Banks benefiting from falling loan defaults The economy's recent performance looks better if we measure it using aggregated incomes rather than expenditures. Gross domestic income increased by 2.7% annualised in the first quarter, easily... 4th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The modest decline in the ISM manufacturing index, to 53.5 in May from 54.8 the month before, was probably a lot better than most people had fearedafter the weak payrolls data and the sharp declines... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2012) Canada's 1.9% annualised first-quarter GDP growth was somewhat stronger than we had estimated (+1.6%), though it fell short of the 2.5% growth that the Bank of Canada had expected in its April... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) May's employment report clearly suggests that labour market conditions are deteriorating again, which will undoubtedly prompt more speculation that QE3is coming soon. Non-farm payrolls increased by... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Payroll employment (Mar.) and Balance of Payments (Q1) March's business payroll figures showed an encouraging 0.8% m/m gain in average weekly earnings and a respectable 48,950 gain in employment. Even so, given the previous declines in payroll employment... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update More homes built for rent to drive further fall in floor space The modest improvement in housing demand combined with recent increases in homebuilder confidence are reasons to think that the fall in average new home floor space should be drawing to an end. But... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can the US monetary data explain the price of gold? The relationship between the dollar price of gold and the size of the US monetary base is not as robust as often assumed. Prior to the global financial crisis there was barely any relationship at all... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (May) The fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to a four-month low of 64.9 in May, from 68.7 in April, suggests that the sharp drop back in stock markets was the dominant factor... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Q1) In seasonally-adjusted terms, the Case-Shiller national house price index reported its strongest quarterly gain for two-and-a-half years. And with the economic recovery now on firmer ground, we see no... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch The long pause in policy interest rate just getting started While it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will keep its policy interest rate at 1.00% next week, we think the Bank's upcoming policy statement, due out on Tuesday, will be more downbeat... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar's bark worse than bite The rapid appreciation of the Canadian dollar since 2003 has certainly added to the challenges confronting the manufacturing sector. Much more important to this sector's struggle, however, has been... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The sizeable fiscal cliff We are still assuming that Congress will agree to extend the bulk of the tax cuts due to expire at the end of the year and to postpone most of the automatic spending cuts set to take place early next... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Markit's new PMI looks to be a valuable addition Markit’s new US manufacturing PMI appears to be better at capturing changes in GDP growth and manufacturing output than the ISM survey. That said, the very limited history means the real test is... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The annual growth rate of our re-constructed measure of M3 eased slightly to 5.2% y/y in April, from 5.9% but, with M1 and M2 still growing at much faster rates, we see no cause for alarm. 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls to rise back to underlying trend Our econometric model suggests that May is the month when payrolls growth snapped back in line with the underlying trend. We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in May, up... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Apr.) While the 0.2% m/m increase in durable goods orders in April was in line with the consensus forecast, we would still label this a mildly disappointing report, since that gain was largely driven by an... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
