Canada Economics Weekly Household borrowing near full throttle Household borrowing has accelerated over the last few quarters, a trend that might continue to push the debt-to-income ratio higher. However, the faltering global economic recovery and drop back in... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed still reluctant to launch QE3 The Fed appears to be edging closer to launching a third round of asset purchases (QE3), but it will not pull the trigger unless the economy loses more momentum and/or the threat to US financial... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) May's slightly larger than expected decline in the official 'core' inflation figure, to 1.8% from 2.1%, provides even greater leeway for the Bank of Canada to refrain from raising interest rates... 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Drop back in core inflation likely to be gradual We now expect the annual core CPI inflation rate to decline only modestly this year, from 2.3% in May to slightly below 2.0% by year-end, before falling more markedly next year to 1.5% by end 2013. 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Tighter mortgage rules likely to curb housing activity The finance department's surprise announcement earlier today to tighten the screw further on mortgage insurance rules starting in early July is prudent action in our view, given the elevated risks... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (May) The slight fall in existing home sales in May suggests that, with economic activity indicators weakening, the recovery in housing market demand has lost a little bit of momentum. Nevertheless, if we... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) April's disappointing 0.8% m/m drop in retail sales volumes would be disconcerting for monthly GDP growth if it were not for the surprisingly strong growth in wholesale trade data released earlier... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed twists again, but no QE3 yet In the end, the Fed opted to extend its Maturity Extension Programme (aka Operation Twist) for another six months, but there was no new large-scale asset purchase programme (QE3). Nevertheless, the... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook House prices will rise this year Driven by strong investor demand, the modest recovery in housing market activity will not only continue into the second half of 2012 and beyond, it will spread to encompass house prices, which will... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Storm clouds gathering After a slight pick-up in the second quarter, we expect GDP growth to drop back below 2% annualised in the second half of this year, as the strength in housing investment fades and consumption slows... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May) The 4.8% m/m fall in housing starts in May could be an early sign that the recent slowdown in the wider economy has taken some of the wind out of the sails of the improvement in housing market... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation has further to fall Headline CPI inflation dropped below the Fed's 2% target rate in May for the first time in 16 months and, with gasoline prices still falling, it looks like it could be down to around 1.5% within... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tumbling commodity prices darken outlook The faltering global economy has sent commodity prices tumbling and it seems unlikely they will rebound. Prices might rally initially in response to any further support provided by global central... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slowdown not that much of an exaggeration Chairman Ben Bernanke recently appeared to play down the need for more action from the Fed, arguing that the extent of the US slowdown may have been "exaggerated". Looking at the pattern of the... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Ind. Prod'n (May) & Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The 0.4% m/m drop in manufacturing output in May and the slump in consumer confidence to a nine-month low are further illustrations of how rapidly the economy has lost momentumafter a very strong... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Apr.) April's surprising 0.8% m/m decline in the value of manufacturing sales, mainly due to lower volumes, points to another month of modest growth in GDP, possibly as low as 0.1%m/m. We originally assumed... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
