Canada Economics Update Labour market improvement unlikely to be sustained Labour market conditions have steadily improved since the economic recovery took hold in mid-2009. This improvement, however, is partly due to a sharp rebound in construction activity. Although... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are lower mortgage rates supporting housing demand? News of mortgage rates falling to fresh lows may have become an almost weekly occurrence, but there’s relatively little evidence that this is translating into stronger housing demand among mortgage... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Some signs of progress Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by around 100,000 in July, which would be slightly better than the 80,000 gain in June. This would still mean that employment... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (May) May's payroll survey data, which showed solid gains in average weekly earnings and employment, indicate that second-quarter wages and salaries increased by close to 7.0% annualised, more than double... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Jun.) June’s durable goods orders figures provide a upside risk to our forecast that GDP grew at an annualised rate of 1.5% in the second quarter, but not one large enough to warrant changing the forecast... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jun.) The 8.4% m/m fall in new home sales in June was further evidence that the recovery in housing demand has lost a little momentum. But with supply conditions in the market for new homes still tight... 25th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Is the housing market enjoying a soft landing? Housing activity is cooling and if this trend continues, as we expect, the typical lag times between activity and prices suggest that house prices might begin to decline outright next year. Given the... 25th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Economy not weak enough to trigger QE3 next week As it stands at the moment, the incoming news has probably not been quite weak enough to prompt the Fed into providing more policy stimulus, such as a third round of asset purchases (QE3), at the... 25th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) May's 0.7% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes, paired with last week's positive wholesale and manufacturing volumes figures, indicate that monthly GDP grew by 0.2% m/m in May, slightly stronger than... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Spring slowdown flows into summer The economic slowdown that began in the spring months has continued into the summer. We estimate that GDP grew at an annualised rate of around 1.5% in the second quarter, down from 1.9% in the first... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Drought not much of a drain on US economy The drought in parts of America is unlikely to have a major economic impact. At most, the resulting rise in agricultural commodity prices will reverse only a small part of the recent fall in inflation... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's oil price rebounds, but will it last? Our measure of Canada's 'effective' crude oil price, a blend of three key benchmarks, has rebounded by a sharp 25% over the past few weeks, to US$88 p/b from US$70 p/b. But this rally in crude oil... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jun. 12) June's rise in the official 'core' inflation figure, to 2.0% from 1.8%, mainly reflects transportation base year effects. With inflation expectations well anchored and economic growth likely to remain... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly QE3 now a 50-50 call It is a very close call as to whether the Fed will launch a third round of large-scale asset purchases in the second half of this year. We expect growth to continue slightly below the economy's... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) The steep drop in existing home sales in June is clearly disappointing, but we always expected the housing recovery to be choppy and today’s release is consistent with that. In any case, given that... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada's economic forecasts too optimistic The Bank of Canada's new economic forecasts, presented in its July Monetary Policy Report, still look too optimistic, mainly because of its rosy domestic assumptions. Although the bank's lower near... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
