US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) The CoreLogic measure reported that house prices continued to rise rapidly in February. However, the recent loosening in supply conditions suggests that runaway house price inflation will not continue... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gulf between US & German bond yields looks set to widen The spread between the yields of 10-year US and German government bonds is close to the largest it has been since the start of EMU. But we think the spread will continue to grow. With this in mind, we... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update PCE inflation won't be this low for long The fall in PCE inflation to just 0.9% in February probably marks the low point in this cycle and we suspect that the Fed will be surprised by how fast inflation rebounds over the next 18 months. 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) The stronger than expected 0.5% m/m rebound in January's GDP, which fully reversed December's weather-related contraction, suggests that bad weather had a smaller effect on first-quarter activity than... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Mortgage rate cuts won't trigger housing rally The decision by Canada's large banks to cut fixed mortgage rates ahead of the typically busy Spring home buying season won't boost sagging home sales. With housing so unaffordable, mortgage rates... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly No need to stress about the banks While a handful of banks “failed” the Fed’s latest stress tests, the sector as a whole has enough capital to continue lending to domestic businesses and households even if it had to absorb further... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing is at a crossroad The housing recovery is at a crossroad. We expect looser supply conditions to drive a moderation in house price gains over the next year. But our forecasts assume that declining investor demand will... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the long-term unemployed ever get back to work? If there is little prospect of getting the long-term unemployed, who account for an unusually large share of the overall jobless rate, back into work then wage growth could accelerate faster than the... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Weather effects starting to reverse The weather didn't quite return to seasonal norms in March, but it was nowhere near as bad as it was between December and February. We have pencilled in a gain of 200,000 in payroll employment in... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 2.2% m/m rebound in durable goods orders in February, which was more than double the consensus estimate of a 0.8% m/m gain, was largely due to a big bounce back in the transportation component... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to a six-year high of 82.3 in March, from 78.3, reflects mainly a reversal of the weather effects from a month ago. With equity... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales (Jan./Feb.14) The rapid, double-digit increases in house prices are unlikely to continue now that housing market supply conditions are loosening. 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Threat from twin deficits quietly fades The current account and Federal budget deficits have narrowed markedly over the past few years, indicating that the US economy is the closest it has been to both internal and external balance in more... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Medical inflation is coming back to life A rebound in medical inflation from recent 40-year lows will add to a wider strengthening in price pressures to push core PCE inflation above the Fed’s 2% target next year. This may prompt the Fed to... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Demographics to weigh on economic growth and interest rates In his speech last week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz argued that the legacy of the financial crisis and demographic changes can explain Canada's recent lacklustre economic performance. More... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Yellen wrong to downplay Fed's rate projections We didn't think new Fed Chair Janet Yellen's admission that "considerable period" meant six months or so warranted the subsequent equity sell-off. It simply confirmed what we already knew, that the... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
