US Economics Update US set for a couple more years of sluggish growth We no longer believe that US economic growth will accelerate as much next year. The continued drag from the crisis in the euro-zone and the risk that America hits a fiscal cliff at the end of this... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Small business optimism continues to deteriorate The further decline in the CFIB's small business barometer in July is an early indication that the overall pace of economic recovery may have slowed further. While GDP growth in the second quarter is... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Here's what the Fed should do next... The more we think about this from the perspective of what the Fed is ultimately trying to achieve, the more we're convinced that the best option would be a cut in the interest rate payable on excess... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Fed stands pat, but offers hint of further action soon Despite acknowledging the evident slowdown in US economic growth, the Fed declined to take any additional action at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting today. It did, however, offer a hint that... 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed stands pat, but offers hint of further action soon Despite acknowledging the evident slowdown in US economic growth, the Fed declined to take any additional action at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting today. It did, however, offer a hint that... 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul. 12) The soft ISM manufacturing report for July suggests that the economy will continue to grow at the sub-par annualised rate of around 1.5% in the third quarter. While this is not fast enough to reduce... 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) The latest mortgage applications data provide further evidence that record low mortgage rates are doing little to boost demand among mortgage-dependent buyers. Meanwhile, the FHFA has reaffirmed its... 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jul.), Income & Spending (Jun.) The rebound in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a three-month high of 65.9 in July, from 62.7 in June, suggests that the positive impact from the recent rally in equity prices... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (May) The fourth successive rise in the Case-Shiller measure of seasonally-adjusted house prices means that prices are experiencing more than just their usual seasonal lift. Moreover, tight supply... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (May) The modest 0.1% m/m increase in Canada's monthly GDP in May supports our existing estimate that the economy expanded at a disappointing 1.7% annualised pace in the second quarter. That would mark the... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Business investment won't be the economy's saviour With exports hampered by the global economic slowdown and the nascent domestic housing downturn likely to hit housing investment and consumption too, a slowdown in Canada's overall economic growth... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update The economy does not have a “stall speed” The economy does not have a “stall speed” of between 1.5% and 2.0% that means whenever growth falls below this rate a recession is imminent. This is especially the case when the economy current has so... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising dollar another drag on growth The recent increase in the dollar, to close to a two-year high against the euro, represents another headwind for US exporters when they already have to contend with the easing in demand in Europe and... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Are consumers retreating? Our measure of Canada's 'effective' crude oil price, a blend of three key benchmarks, has rebounded by a sharp 25% over the past few weeks, to US$88 p/b from US$70 p/b. But this rally in crude oil... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) The 1.5% annualised rise in GDP in the second quarter shows that the economy has lost a fair amount of momentum this year. Nonetheless, the recent run of data probably hasn’t been quite weak enough to... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q2 12) The very modest increase in the homeownership rate in Q2 does not persuade us to alter our view that the share of the population who own their home will fall further over the next couple of years... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
