US Chart Pack Recovery standing firm So far there is little evidence that the recent softening in economic growth is developing into a more significant slowdown. The leading index and a weighted average of the two ISM activity indices... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr.) April’s 3.3% m/m rise in new home sales adds to the impression that homebuilders are starting to feel some of the benefits of improving housing market activity. Moreover, the rising proportion of new... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) March’s strong 0.4% m/m gain in retail sales volumes bodes well for monthly GDP growth, helping to offset the negative impact from the weaker wholesale trade report released last week. Overall, we... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Apr.) The rise in existing home sales in April suggests that the modest recovery in housing market activity is back on track. The improvement is being driven almost entirely by cash buyers and investors... 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus The housing recovery will last the course The sheer extent of undervaluation in the housing market, combined with the prospect of a sustained if modest economic and labour market improvement, should ensure that the current, gradual housing... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are Treasuries the real deal? The yield on 10-year US Treasuries fleetingly dipped below 1.7% last week – its lowest level on record. We do not expect to witness a major sell-off any time soon – our end-2012 and end-2013 forecasts... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Labour's share of income to continue trending lower Labour's share of income has been on a downward structural trend since the 1980s, resulting from the decline in labour's bargaining power, globalisation and technological progress. Not only will that... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What would a Greek euro exit mean for Canada? Although Greece's departure from the euro now seems almost inevitable, that should have only moderate consequences for well capitalised Canadian banks and the Canadian economy, even if the exit from... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US economy should shrug off Greek exit All things considered, we don't expect Greece's eventual exit from the euro-zone to have any devastating impact on the US economy, even if the exit from the single currency is compounded by a Greek... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Apr.) April's surprising rise in the official 'core' inflation figure, which rose to 2.1% from 1.9% in March, partially reflects higher motor vehicle prices and does not suggest higher inflation ahead. More... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Foreclosure procedures offer clues to State-level outlook Differences in foreclosure procedures will be one determinant of when State-level housing markets improve. While the national housing market is in the early stages of a recovery, many of the judicial... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery looks to be on firmer ground The US recovery looks to be on firmer ground, despite the mounting crisis in the euro-zone. We anticipate GDP growth of 2.0% this year and 2.5% in 2013. 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q1) The good news is that the number of homeowners who are delinquent on their mortgage continued to fall in the first quarter. But that didn’t change the big picture that the large overhang of homeowners... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Mar.) March's 1.9% m/m increase in manufacturing sales volumes supports our view that monthly GDP, after declining by 0.2% m/m in February, rebounded by at least 0.3% m/m the next month. Until we see the... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) The 2.6% m/m rise in housing starts in April, alongside the big upward revisions to earlier data, supports our view that housing is in recovery mode. Driven in particular by the multi-family sector... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Presidential election may make QE3 even less likely A look back at history throws cold water over suggestions that the Fed tends to alter its behaviour ahead of Presidential elections. Nonetheless, with political hostility towards the Fed currently... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
