Bank of Canada Watch Interest rates likely to remain low for years The Bank of Canada policy announcement next week, which almost surely will maintain the policy interest rate at 1%, is likely to acknowledge that the more modest outlook for the global economy has... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Unemployment a cyclical rather than structural problem Two data releases this morning offered only limited support to the claim made yesterday by Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker that the economy is already close to full employment. 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Booming housing construction still on uneven footing The recent strength in housing starts, mostly multiples, reflects strong new housing sales from over a year ago. However, home sales are now softening and the recent tightening of mortgage insurance... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small business confidence waning The fairly sharp decline in the NFIB's latest small business optimism index suggests that it isn't just larger export-orientated firms that have seen a drop off in demand over the past few months. 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook & Senior Loan Officer Surveys (2012Q2) The latest quarterly business surveys indicate that, while significantly fewer businesses expect future sales growth to pick-up over the next 12 months, they remain steadfast in their plans to... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly No need to fear another recession Although it is very clear that the US economy has lost a lot of momentum, there are no real indications that it will soon come to a complete standstill or even go into reverse. The latest ISM surveys... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Corporate cash piles could boost economic growth Canadian businesses are flush with cash. Even if just a small fraction of the cash held by the non-financial sector were used to boost dividends, we estimate it would significantly increase personal... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) June's modest 7,300 gain in employment was close to consensus expectations (+5,000) and supports our view that the economy grew more strongly in the second quarter, to 2.2% annualised from 1.9% in the... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 80,000 rise in payroll employment in June provides further evidence that the US economy has lost momentum since the turn of the year, but that the recovery is not grinding to a complete halt. 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Europe a greater drag than China The slowdown in Europe has been a greater drag on the US economy than the softening in China. With the euro-zone on the cusp of a deep recession, this trend will only become more pronounced. The... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun. 12) While another fall in mortgage rates saw remortgaging applications surge higher in June as a whole, applications for home purchase remained stuck in the doldrums. Nevertheless, this isn’t preventing a... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Lower oil prices threaten investment prospects The faltering global economy has driven commodity prices lower, with Canadian oil prices down sharply from levels earlier this year. Although oil prices have risen somewhat over the past week, we... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sluggish corporate earnings to weigh on the US stock market The Q2 earnings season kicks off in the US next week. The story that is likely to emerge is one of slower profit growth. And looking further ahead, the news is likely to get worse. This is a key... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the ISM manufacturing index overplaying the slowdown? There are a couple of reasons why the plunge in the ISM manufacturing index in June may be overplaying the extent of the recent slowdown. Even so, the clearer signs that events in Europe and China are... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are the markets right to shrug off the US ISM? The markets have taken the alarmingly weak US ISM data in their stride, seemingly banking on European policymakers and the US Fed to turn things around quickly. This muted reaction looks complacent to... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The fall in June’s ISM manufacturing index to below 50 for the first time since the last recession is the surest sign yet that the US is catching the slowdown already underway in Europe and China. But... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
