US Housing Market Update A stronger outlook for house prices? The improvement in housing market activity has not only put a floor under house prices, but, in recent months, has driven them higher. With the big caveat that much depends on how severe the effects... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Current Account (Q1) Plummeting energy prices and favourable base effects drove headline CPI inflation below the Fed's 2.0% target in May, for the first time in 16 months. The annual rate actually fell to 1.7%, from 2.3%... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (May) The stalling in underlying retail sales growth in May suggests that the recent easing in jobs growth has started to curtail spending. We doubt, however, that the economic recovery has come to a... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed probably won't act as soon as next week The intensifying crisis in the euro-zone coupled with signs that the US economic recovery is faltering have led to speculation that the Fed will provide more monetary stimulus at the next two-day FOMC... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA’s estimates consistent with lower grain prices The United States Department for Agriculture’s (USDA) latest estimates for 2012/13 indicate a further marginal increase in both the global corn and soybean end stocks. This is consistent with our... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to fall further as euro-zone crisis deepens Headline inflation has dropped this year in most major economies and is likely to come down further as global growth falters, the euro-zone crisis deepens and commodity prices continue to fall. We... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What would trigger QE3? Unless the economy loses a lot more momentum or the eventual financial contagion from the crisis in Europe is much greater than we expect, the Fed is unlikely to launch a third round of asset... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing construction likely to keep on giving The latest permit data indicate that condo developments continue to be the main source of strength in new housing construction, which has showed little sign of slowing. Given the lengthy construction... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Households snap up Treasuries Households appear to be making a concerted effort to hold safer assets. In fact, in the first quarter they bought more Treasuries than the Fed and overseas investors combined. Should foreign appetite... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response LFS(May 12) & Trade (Apr 12) May's more modest 7,700 gain in employment is forgivable given the unusually strong growth in the previous two months. That said, the details were somewhat discouraging. While part-time employment... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.)12 The narrowing in the trade deficit in April is encouraging, especially given that the latest fall in the oil price will reduce the cost of imported oil. More worrying, however, are the growing signs... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Modest housing improvement still holding up The weaker tone of the economic and labour market data has yet to be reflected in the housing numbers. Home sales rose by 3.4% m/m in April and are 10% higher than a year ago. The fact that improving... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Domestic demand prospects looking less sure Canada's economy grew by 1.9% annualised in the first quarter, matching the pace in the previous quarter and, given the recent slump in commodity and equity prices, a substantial pick-up in growth... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May) The small fall in mortgage applications for home purchase suggests that, despite record low mortgage rates, the renewed weakness in the labour market is starting to weigh on housing demand. 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada back in dovish mode The Bank of Canada's policy statement, while keeping its policy rate at 1.00%, backed off from the suggestion in the previous statement that interest rates may need to rise. The Bank is now more... 5th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Underlying inflation likely to turn down Although underlying inflation appears to have drifted higher over the last several months, this trend still remains well within the central bank's inflation target range. Recent movements in commodity... 4th June 2012 · 1 min read
