US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The very modest 115,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in April will raise fears that the recovery is fading fast, just like it did at this time last year. We still think the true health of the labour... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) The further rise in mortgage applications for home purchase is an encouraging sign that mortgage-dependent buyers are beginning to contribute to the improvement in home sales. But with credit... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manu. Index (Apr.) & Const'n Spending (Mar.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in April will ease concerns that the softer tone of the recent incoming economic data marked the start of another midyear slump in growth. 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q1) Supply conditions in the rental sector are tightening as the proportion of households renting reached a 15 year high in Q1. We think that the rental rate may rise slightly further yet, with the... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The unexpected 0.2% m/m decline in February's monthly real GDP means that overall first-quarter GDP growth was probably no more than 2.0% annualised, whereas we had previously hoped for a gain of at... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed no nearer QE3...or higher rates The upward revisions to the Fed’s forecasts for core inflation published after last week’s policy meeting have largely been overlooked. But they actually play a crucial role in explaining why the... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market cooling The Bank of Canada's recent heavy hint that interest rates may need to rise soon already looks badly timed. Little more than a week after the release of its latest Monetary Policy Report, which... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) First-quarter GDP growth came in at a disappointing 2.2% annualised, but the undershoot compared with the 2.5% consensus forecast was largely explained by an unexpected second consecutive quarterly... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Search for safe havens set to resume We think tougher times lie ahead for risky assets. Enthusiasm for equities is likely to be curbed by a turn in the US profit cycle, an absence of additional unconventional monetary stimulus from the... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Two leading indicators that reinforce price stabilisation picture The short histories of US house price expectations and asking price data mean that their ability to give an early steer on house price movements is relatively untested. Nevertheless, the fact that... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Not another 2010 or 2011 We don’t think that the 120,000 increase in nonfarm payroll employment in March, which was half February’s rise, is the start of a sustained period of substantially weaker jobs growth. Our econometric... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed content to play waiting game The statement issued today after the two-day FOMC meeting indicates that the majority of Fed officials are content to wait and see how the US recovery develops. In particular, the statement reaffirmed... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Mar.) The unexpectedly big 4.2% m/m slump in durable goods orders in March isn't quite as bad as it looks, particularly as the details of the report suggest that there is now some upside risk to our... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The trivial fall in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 69.2 in April, from 69.5 March, was broadly in line with the already reported modest decline in the University of Michigan... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook US recovery, European recession We expect world GDP to grow by around 3% both this year and next. The US economy is set to recover steadily but the euro-zone recession will deepen, causing the sovereign debt crisis to flare up again... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales (Feb/Mar) The small rise in the Case-Shiller index in February supports our view that house prices are either very close to, or already through, their trough. But with new home sales still very subdued in March... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
