Annualised growth on the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic house price indices over the past three months stands at 6.2% and 9% respectively. However, price growth may moderate in the second half of the year. For one, the slowdown in the economy is likely to take some of the wind out of the improvement in housing demand. Moreover, related to problems with the seasonal adjustment process, the pattern of recent years has been for prices to be weaker in the second half of the year than the first. But even if we were to see a few months of falling prices at some point, the bigger picture should remain that housing is in recovery mode and that prices will rise overall this year.
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