Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul. 12) July's surprisingly large 30,400 decline in employment, following two months of paltry gains, is a bad start to the second half of this year. Admittedly, the underlying details were better than the... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Corn prices are poised to fall US corn production estimates published today by the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA) were revised down sharply. However, this was largely anticipated by the market, and was mainly... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing investment cycle may have peaked The surge in housing starts, driven entirely by hi-rise condominium construction despite already high inventory, is now glaring evidence of overbuilding. Anecdotal evidence, meanwhile, points to... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jun. 12) The sharp narrowing in the trade deficit in June suggests that the easing in global demand and the strengthening in the dollar have yet to take a major toll on the US economy. But we doubt this can... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) June's 0.3% m/m gain in export volumes together with upward revisions to previous months indicate that second-quarter exports increased, a somewhat stronger outcome than the slight decline we had... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q2 12) The sharp slowdown in jobs growth seems to have fed through rapidly to the mortgage delinquency rate, which rose for the first time in a year in the second quarter. There was better news on the... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada's sub-par economic performance The below par 2% rate of Canadian GDP growth over the first half of this year must be a concern for policy makers, particularly when the chances are that growth will slow even further in the second... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Household deleveraging on track Households may be two-thirds the way through the necessary deleveraging process. What’s more, a larger proportion of the remaining deleveraging will be achieved by incomes growing rather than debt... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The housing recovery has not run out of steam already June’s sharp drop in home sales has lead to concerns that the recovery in housing market demand is already stalling. However, while job creation and GDP growth will remain lacklustre, the signs are... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) CoreLogic’s measure of house prices posted another strong gain in June. But unlike in recent months, the latest rise was marginally weaker than we would expect in a typical June, meaning that... 7th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed will want to satisfy surging mortgage demand The surge in demand for residential mortgages reported by the Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey could further encourage the FOMC to launch QE3, and perhaps some kind of Funding for Lending... 7th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Don’t fret about June’s weak sales figures Home sales fell by 5.6% m/m in June, the largest monthly decline for 16 months. But this is unlikely to signal that the recovery in housing demand has run out of steam already. For one, pending home... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed will do more, but QE3 is not the best option We now think that the Fed will provide more policy stimulus when the FOMC next meets in September. The most likely scenario is a third round of asset purchases (QE3), this time focusing on mortgage... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth continues to ease The anaemic rate of Canadian economic growth is becoming a major concern, particularly when the chances are that growth will only slow further in the second half of this year. Before the end of this... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) The bigger than expected 163,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in July, up from a muted 64,000 in June, will ease fears that the US economy is following Europe into recession. If this proves to be the... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Full nationalisation could be required to boost lending The Bank of England’s new Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) got underway last week. If the FLS doesn’t work, more radical action to boost bank lending will be needed. 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
