Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May) We expect the pace of house price declines to gradually ease this year with house prices reaching a trough by the end of the year. We suspect house prices may start to rise again thereafter, by 3% in... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Apr.) April’s strong rise in house purchase mortgage approvals more than reversed March’s fall. But we doubt that signals the start of a sustained recovery in lending. 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (May) Uncertainty and the already high level of prices kept house price inflation subdued in May. Looking ahead, we expect these factors to keep price growth weak to the end of 2019 – at just 1% y/y. 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Fall in rates won’t trigger a surge in mortgage demand The recent fall in the 10-year Treasury yield means the 30-year mortgage rate is set to drop to 1½-year lows over the next few weeks. But we doubt that will trigger another jump in mortgage... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Who is winning the trade war? With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus House prices may rebound in early 2020 We expect the current housing downturn to end around the turn of the year. We think that house prices may rise by 3% from their trough in 2020 and by 5% in 2021. While rising house prices should boost... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Mar.) March’s easing in house price growth was consistent with our expectations. Looking ahead, we expect that slowdown to continue, although with inventory levels very low and mortgage interest rates... 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Apr.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase saw a surprisingly large rise in April, but we doubt that signals the start of a sustained rebound in lending. Indeed, with all other signs consistent with... 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Outlook for housing market has brightened Proposed changes by Australia’s bank regulator will increase the maximum loan size for some borrowers. While that is unlikely to bolster housing demand much at this stage, as the RBA lowers interest... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr.) The drop in new home sales in April came from an upwardly revised March figure, and sales were up 7% over the year. A healthier level of inventory is helping the new home market outperform the... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Apr.) Existing home sales dropped back for the second consecutive month in April. A lack of inventory has constrained sales even as lower mortgage interest rates have given a boost to housing demand. With... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Modi on the cusp of victory Exit polls signal that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP and its coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance have won India’s election. Admittedly, exit polls have been wrong in the past, not least... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing shows signs of life The housing market showed some promising signs of life in April, with home sales rising strongly. House price inflation slowed, however, and is likely to remain very low. 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) Housing starts maintained their recent revival during April, while building permits also rose. Strong housebuilder confidence and solid underlying demand are expected to support starts over the next... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What might trigger a hard landing? Structural headwinds will weigh on China’s growth rate over the coming decade. If well managed, this slowdown will be gradual. But a more abrupt adjustment shouldn’t be ruled out. We see two main... 16th May 2019 · 28 mins read
US Housing Market Update Shift toward building cheaper homes will support sales Tax reform and lower lumber prices have led to a rise in the construction of smaller, lower-priced homes. We expect that trend will continue, helping to relieve the shortage of affordable homes on the... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
