UK Housing Market Update Slow market squeezes mortgage lenders Facing weak demand, lenders have cut their interest margins to compete for business, dampening the impact that rate hikes have had on mortgage pricing. But looking ahead, there is limited room for... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Smaller tax refunds a headwind for house prices Tax returns processed so far indicate households are set for smaller refunds this year. For most, the drop in expected income will not be enough to derail plans to buy a home. But, to the extent... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jan.) Housing demand fell sharply in January, but we doubt that heralds a collapse in prices. But conversely, even if a Brexit deal is done, the market is unlikely to rebound. In all, we expect the housing... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Jan.) The 0.1% monthly decline in the Teranet House Price Index in January equates to a decent 0.4% m/m increase in seasonally-adjusted terms. But the annual pace of house price inflation dropped back to... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are homes being built in the right places? There has been a long-running mismatch between where homes are built, and where people are moving to. The government’s standard method for assessing new housing need targets this discrepancy, and... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rising participation to provide less of a lift to housing The participation rate for younger Americans had risen to a 10-year high by the end of 2018, with women driving most of that gain. That will have supported both rental and home purchase demand. But... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market stumbles along House price growth has slowed to a near standstill, while mortgage approvals are falling. Much of that reflects the high level of house prices, although Brexit uncertainty is increasingly taking its... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Surge in mortgage applications will prove short-lived Mortgage applications for home purchase briefly touched a nine-year high in the middle of January, as a drop in mortgage interest rates tempted home buyers back into the market. However, even as... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jan.) While house prices have some downward momentum, we don’t think that heralds the start of a sustained fall. Rather, we expect house price growth to maintain its sluggish pace in 2019. 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) A drop in mortgage interest rates to a nine-month low in January helped boost mortgage demand. But the jump in applications for home purchase is already unwinding. Given a slowing economy and lack of... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Royal Commission will add to slowing credit growth The final report by the Royal Commission may add to the changes in bank behaviour that are already underway. However, the report did not recommend much that is likely to cause an upheaval for the... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage rates to fall despite cut in Fed MBS holdings The reduction in MBS held on the Fed’s balance sheet is, for now, set to continue in 2019. But while the announcement of MBS purchases in late 2008 led to a sharp drop in mortgage rates, we don’t... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Could leasehold reforms raise house prices? Plans to limit the creation of new leaseholds, as well as to cap ground rents, are unlikely to raise newbuild house prices. Meanwhile, developers could see a small hit to their margins, at least in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s optimism faces reality check The RBA will probably continue to signal that the next move in rates is up at Tuesday’s meeting. But with mounting signs that the housing downturn is spreading to other parts of the economy and price... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.) House prices have now fallen 7.6% from their peak and the pace of declines in recent months leads us to believe prices may now fall 15% from peak to trough. We believe such a large downturn would... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Nov.) New home sales surged 16.9% m/m in November, but activity is likely to level off in 2019. While mortgage rates are set to drop back, a slowing economy will weigh on buyer sentiment, and that will keep... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
