Canada Economics Update Full effects of housing downturn yet to be felt The continued weakness of home sales suggests that March’s rebound in housing starts is unlikely to be sustained, while the subdued pace of house price inflation points to spending growth remaining... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Mar.) The latest RICS survey was slightly less gloomy than a month ago, but this is unlikely to signal any change in the underlying market. Given Brexit concerns, conditions are likely to remain weak near... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Surge in mortgage demand will not be sustained A drop in interest rates gave the mortgage market a shot in the arm in March, with applications for home purchase rising to close to a nine-year high. But we doubt that housing market activity is set... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rates to fall to fresh record-lows A slowing global economy will magnify the headwinds from the housing downturn in Australia and slower net migration in New Zealand. We think that GDP growth will slow more sharply than most anticipate... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Mar.) February’s jump in the Halifax price measure was an outlier in a gloomy run of housing data, so it wasn’t a surprise that this has been partly reversed. The March figure is more in line with a... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Economic slowdown to weigh on housing market Mortgage interest rates have dropped sharply since the end of last year, and the 30-year fixed rate is set to fall to 4.2% by the end of 2019. But that won’t spur a significant rise in housing market... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) The drop in mortgage interest rates to a 15-month low at the end of March helped spur a strong rise in demand for both home purchase and refinance mortgages. However, as was the case in January, we... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are London new home prices really outperforming? An increase in high-end development and the use of sales incentives have supported recorded new home prices in London. That suggests the observed rise in the new home premium does not signal... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) We Expect house prices in the eight capital cities to fall by at least another 6%, though our sales-to-new-listings ratio points to smaller declines in coming months. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) Given the volatility of the data, we wouldn’t read too much into the rise in new home sales to a one-year high in February. Nevertheless, given healthy levels of inventory and evidence that builders... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Feb.) January’s jump in house purchase mortgage approvals was not repeated in February. And while lending has been surprisingly resilient in the face of high house prices and mounting uncertainty, we expect... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Mar.) London’s house price fall intensified in Q1, in line with our expectations. That reflects the high level of prices there, as well as Brexit uncertainty. Looking ahead, we think prices in the capital... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Closing rate hits record high, but not for long The share of mortgage applications that are approved has reached its highest since records began in 2011. With mortgage lending standards essentially unchanged, that implies borrower quality has... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Housebuilding (Q4) In line with our view that housebuilding has peaked, last quarter’s surge in housing starts was not repeated in Q4. Looking ahead, with a wider housing market recovery unlikely anytime soon and Help... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Will the RBA have to cut interest rates? We believe that GDP growth in Australia will fall well below potential this year as the housing downturn bites. That means that unemployment will soon start to rise again and underlying inflation will... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA Prices & Housing Starts (Jan./Feb.) The sharp fall in single-family starts in February was expected given the surge recorded the previous month, and leaves starts close to where they were towards the end of 2018. But even with house... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
