UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) January’s very weak result for house price growth was unexpected, but we don’t think it heralds the start of a sustained decline in prices. Indeed, assuming a Brexit deal is done, we think prices will... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Dec.) After falling sharply in November, house purchase mortgage approvals fell once more in December – consistent with our weak outlook for lending. Indeed, even if a Brexit deal is agreed by the end of... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Nov.) House prices are on track to grow by 5% in 2018, down marginally from a rise of 6.3% in 2017. That gradual easing in price growth will continue, as housing demand flat lines on the back of a slowing... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Shutdown will lift delinquencies, but not foreclosures Households struggling to pay their mortgage thanks to the government shutdown will be offered forbearance. That won’t prevent a rise in the mortgage delinquency rate, but with back pay guaranteed it... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Dec.) Mortgage approvals suffered a second successive monthly decline in December, suggesting that the outlook for lending remains subdued against a backdrop of high house prices and expected rises in... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Jobs and credit growth set to slow further The downturn in the housing market means that the recent stability of the unemployment rate probably won’t last. We expect jobs growth to slow to 1% next year and the unemployment rate to creep up to... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Uncertainty reinforces soft housing outlook Rising Brexit uncertainty only reinforces our weak outlook for the housing market. In our most likely scenario, we think transactions will dip this year before edging back up in 2020, all while house... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices (Nov.) Annual house price growth was unchanged at 5.8% in November, but it is likely to resume its downward trend in 2019. While mortgage interest rates are set to fall back, a slowing economy will weigh on... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Government attempts to woo SMEs Election giveaways in India have been ramped up significantly this month, with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) the main beneficiaries. Firms with annual sales of less than INR0.4m are now... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) Strong mortgage demand over the past couple of weeks indicates that the sharp fall in existing home sales in December will soon be reversed. But a slowing economy, weakening house price expectations... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus This time won’t be different We believe that the downturn in Australia’s housing market will become by far the deepest and longest on record. By curbing dwellings investment, consumption and bank lending, we think it will result... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Home sales fall, inflation to drop back The data this week confirmed that Canadian home sales finished 2018 on a weak note, while inflation jumped back up to 2% at the end of the year. Housing sales are unlikely to rebound strongly, while... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why we now expect the RBA to cut rates Australia’s housing downturn is deepening. Prices will probably fall by more than we had previously anticipated and the drag from falling dwellings investment will be larger. The experience from... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Earnings accelerate, but rents won’t follow suit The acceleration in earnings growth to close to a 10-year high in December will not boost rental growth. While stronger earnings will support rental demand, the large number of new apartments being... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) Credit availability for both commercial and residential property tightened in Q4, and with Brexit uncertainty likely to be extended, that trend looks set to persist. 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update House prices most vulnerable in Hong Kong & Canada Several of the world’s most overvalued housing markets have taken a turn for the worse, and history suggests the risks of large house price corrections are greatest where monetary conditions are... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
