UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Feb.) We wouldn’t put too much weight on the jump in house prices recorded by the Halifax index. Indeed, with all signs pointing to falling demand and weakening buyer sentiment, we think prices will rise by... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb.) The surge in home purchase demand seen in January was reversed in February, even as mortgage interest rates edged back to their lowest level in a year. That dynamic is likely to continue over the next... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jan.) January’s surprise jump in house purchase mortgage approvals shouldn’t be overplayed. Given the weak data on buyer demand and house price expectations falling, we expect mortgage approvals to weaken... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Investment will be a drag on growth before long Data on investment spending released this week sent conflicting messages. We put more weight on the dismal construction work done figures and have penciled in falling business investment in the fourth... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Property prices near bubble peak, Abe gets a lifeline The LDP’s proposal to do away with term limits for the Prime Minister will make little difference to the outlook for Japan’s economy. Meanwhile, we aren’t overly worried about the continued surge in... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) House prices in the eight capital cities have now fallen 8.9% from their peak making the current downturn the largest in Australia’s modern history, and we expect prices to fall by at least another 6%... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Feb.) February’s weak result for house price growth shows a market struggling under the weight of Brexit uncertainty. Yet, even if a Brexit deal is reached fairly soon, we think that house price growth will... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homebuilders right to feel confident The recovery in homebuilder confidence, even as existing home sales have hit three-year lows, reflects the relatively bright outlook for new home sales. While overall housing demand will ease due to a... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Some convergence in business confidence While business confidence in New Zealand seems to be recovering from the slump after 2017’s election, it has weakened in Australia. (See Chart.) That deterioration can partly be explained by softer... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA Prices & Housing Starts (Dec.) Annual house price growth has continued to slow, and is likely to reach 2% by the end of the year. But that shouldn’t prevent a modest recovery in single-family housing starts, which ended 2018 at a... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Jan.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase got off to a weak start in 2019, consistent with our view that lending and housing transactions will weaken again this year. 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Export volumes should fall this year The export climate index fell to a three-year low in January and suggests that exports will barely grow at all this year. The monthly trade data have been even more downbeat as they showed export... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) A pick-up in home purchase mortgage applications at the start of the year suggests the 1.2% m/m drop in existing home sales in January will soon be reversed. But the bigger picture is that a slowing... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The housing downturn isn’t over yet The rise in auction clearing rates in early February is probably just temporary. Housing remains overvalued and other leading indicators point to a continued decline in house prices. We therefore... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Cash-out refinancing set for further gains High levels of home equity and falling mortgage interest rates mean the number of cash-out refinances will reach a 10-year high over the next couple of years. But tight credit standards and cautious... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Slow market squeezes mortgage lenders Facing weak demand, lenders have cut their interest margins to compete for business, dampening the impact that rate hikes have had on mortgage pricing. But looking ahead, there is limited room for... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
