UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending and Nationwide House Prices House price growth and mortgage approvals softened towards the end of 2018 – consistent with our weak outlook for the housing market. Indeed, even assuming that a Brexit deal is struck this year, we... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) The drop in mortgage applications in December, even as interest rates saw further falls, supports our view that lower financing costs will not be enough to boost housing market activity in 2019. A... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) House prices fell the most in December since the current downturn started and a further deterioration in the balance between supply and demand suggests that prices in Melbourne and Sydney will keep... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage market can weather the shutdown If it continues, the partial Federal shutdown is likely to lead to a decline in the mortgage closing rate. But lenders showed flexibility to get around the virtual closure of the FHA and IRS during... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Getting banks to lend again We doubt that the phasing-out of caps on interest-only loans will provide much support to the housing market as there’s still a large imbalance between supply and demand. And the government won’t... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Tighter credit conditions will weigh on growth The latest NAB survey showed that firms are facing the largest difficulties getting finance since 2012, which suggests that credit growth may slow sharply. (See Chart 1.) That may be a reflection of... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack A mixed year for markets 2018 has been a mixed bag for India’s financial markets. The bond market has seen significant gyrations, only for yields to end the year virtually flat from 12 months ago. Meanwhile, the 7% rise in... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) Existing home sales rose for the second consecutive month in November, and a recovery in mortgage demand over the past month suggests they will see further gains over the turn of the year. But with... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Oct.) House price growth slowed to its lowest rate since 2013 in October, and we expect that cooldown to continue into 2019. Indeed, even if Brexit deal is struck, we expect annual house price growth of... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) Single-family housing starts dropped to an 18-month low in November, but we expect a modest rise in starts over the next couple of years. Builders have scaled back production in response to slowing... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will house price falls in the UK be confined to London? London‘s house prices have been falling for much of the last year and we see this as only the start of a correction. But this is the result of specific factors relating to the capital and further... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update London rental growth at an inflection point Leading indicators suggest that, not long after it started, the dip in London rents will soon end. Indeed, on the back of rising tenant demand and weak supply growth, we think rental growth in the... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Fiscal outlook improving, housing outlook bleak The rapid improvement in the budget deficit will allow the government to use the upcoming Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook to deliver some early Christmas presents. But the Treasurer will probably... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) Investment and consumption both appear to have cooled last month, with softer foreign demand also weighing on industrial production. We think further weakness is on the horizon. 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov.) November’s fall in buyer enquiries and sales instructions is consistent with our view that there will be no revival in the housing market next year. Indeed, with the pipeline of housing sales... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Lower interest rates not enough to boost home sales We expect home sales will end 2020 only slightly higher than they are today. Admittedly, the drop in mortgage interest rates seen over the past few weeks has given a boost to mortgage applications... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
