UK Housing Market Update Are London new home prices really outperforming? An increase in high-end development and the use of sales incentives have supported recorded new home prices in London. That suggests the observed rise in the new home premium does not signal... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) We Expect house prices in the eight capital cities to fall by at least another 6%, though our sales-to-new-listings ratio points to smaller declines in coming months. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) Given the volatility of the data, we wouldn’t read too much into the rise in new home sales to a one-year high in February. Nevertheless, given healthy levels of inventory and evidence that builders... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Feb.) January’s jump in house purchase mortgage approvals was not repeated in February. And while lending has been surprisingly resilient in the face of high house prices and mounting uncertainty, we expect... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Mar.) London’s house price fall intensified in Q1, in line with our expectations. That reflects the high level of prices there, as well as Brexit uncertainty. Looking ahead, we think prices in the capital... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Closing rate hits record high, but not for long The share of mortgage applications that are approved has reached its highest since records began in 2011. With mortgage lending standards essentially unchanged, that implies borrower quality has... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Housebuilding (Q4) In line with our view that housebuilding has peaked, last quarter’s surge in housing starts was not repeated in Q4. Looking ahead, with a wider housing market recovery unlikely anytime soon and Help... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Will the RBA have to cut interest rates? We believe that GDP growth in Australia will fall well below potential this year as the housing downturn bites. That means that unemployment will soon start to rise again and underlying inflation will... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA Prices & Housing Starts (Jan./Feb.) The sharp fall in single-family starts in February was expected given the surge recorded the previous month, and leaves starts close to where they were towards the end of 2018. But even with house... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Feb.) Despite a slight rise in house purchase mortgage approvals during February, the outlook for lending is weak. Indeed, even if a Brexit deal were to be agreed soon, we expect no meaningful recovery in... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack London Housing Chart Book: London housing market to soften further House price growth in London has been surprisingly resilient. But with prices very high, interest rates set to rise and the stock of unsold homes growing, we expect a 3% fall in house prices this year... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Equity loans won’t prevent construction downturn It will be at least 18 months before any meaningful boost to construction from the equity loan scheme is felt. In the meantime, the softness of new home sales means that new construction is set to... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update When will standard variable rates rise? Despite two past rate hikes, lenders’ standard variable mortgage rates are barely higher than in 2017. But we think SVRs will be more responsive to the further hikes likely to come in 2019 and 2020. 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Drop in rates won’t trigger a surge in house prices A decline in mortgage interest rates from the start of 2012 was an important factor behind the rise in house prices in recent years. But we don’t think the upcoming drop in interest rates will have... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will prime central London continue to struggle? Prime central London (PCL) house prices held up better than we expected in 2018, though the underlying trend remained weak. The outlook is unlikely to change in 2019 with economic uncertainty... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) The drop in new home sales in January came from an upwardly revised December figure, so sales haven’t lost too much momentum going into 2019. Looking ahead, a slowing economy argues against a strong... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
