Europe Economics Update Dutch housing boom near its peak The housing boom that has been one of the prime drivers of Dutch economic growth in recent years is likely to be close to its peak. As a result, growth is likely to slow in the coming years. But we do... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Looser LTV constraints won’t reignite housing market The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to ease mortgage lending restrictions probably won’t result in a major pick-up in lending and home sales. And with house prices looking stretched relative to... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Sep.) With higher mortgage interest rates weighing on housing demand, it is not a surprise that the FHFA and Case-Shiller reported slower annual house price growth in September. We doubt mortgage rates have... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Oct.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase ended three months of decline with a small rise in October. But with house prices high and interest rates expected to rise next year, the outlook for lending is... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Weak outlook for housing supply Having surged in recent years, office to residential conversions have passed their peak. And conversions of other property types to residential are unlikely to soon make up the difference. Combined... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) The first rise in existing home sales for six months in October provided a rare piece of good housing market news. That doesn’t signal the end of the slowdown, but it does indicate that the strong... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) Single-family housing starts dropped for the second month in a row in October, and building permits saw their first annual decline in 4½ years. Faltering new home demand has hit homebuilder confidence... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Swine fever hogs headlines, but impact still small The spread of African swine fever (ASF) to China’s leading pig-rearing province (Sichuan) last week is an alarming development. But despite its rapid expansion across the country (the disease has... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update No sign of easing in deposit constraints The interest premium on high LTV lending is falling, as banks push to maintain lending flows in the face of weak housing demand. But we don’t expect that to trigger a fresh boom in lending. 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly FDI defying trade tensions, property price data quirks The recent strength of direct investment into China is a reminder that, despite rising US tariff barriers, the country remains an attractive destination for foreign firms. Even so, policymakers... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage gains revised away The contraction in Japan’s economy in Q3 should prove short-lived. But the income data released alongside the GDP figures provide a more lasting reason for concern. The Bank of Japan had been able to... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Oct.) Favourable base effects explain the pick-up in house price inflation in October. Prices only inched up on the month in seasonally-adjusted terms, and we suspect that house price inflation will slow... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Amazon HQ2s will give small boost to rental demand Amazon’s decision to base its new, secondary HQs in New York City and Northern Virginia does not mean that rental markets in these cities will enjoy the kind of surge seen in Seattle. At the margins... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Sep.) While house price inflation edged up in September, the wider trend is still one of slowing growth. With house prices set to stay high relative to incomes, interest rates rising and house price... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Oct.) The October activity and spending data were mostly better than anticipated. But despite an uptick in industrial output and investment, we doubt that economic growth has bottomed out just yet. 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update It’s not all bad news in the housing market Amongst all the housing market gloom it is easy to overlook the fact that homes are selling quickly, prospective buyer traffic volumes are high and mortgage lenders are approving a high share of... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
