US Housing Market Update Homebuilders right to feel confident The recovery in homebuilder confidence, even as existing home sales have hit three-year lows, reflects the relatively bright outlook for new home sales. While overall housing demand will ease due to a... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Some convergence in business confidence While business confidence in New Zealand seems to be recovering from the slump after 2017’s election, it has weakened in Australia. (See Chart.) That deterioration can partly be explained by softer... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA Prices & Housing Starts (Dec.) Annual house price growth has continued to slow, and is likely to reach 2% by the end of the year. But that shouldn’t prevent a modest recovery in single-family housing starts, which ended 2018 at a... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Jan.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase got off to a weak start in 2019, consistent with our view that lending and housing transactions will weaken again this year. 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Export volumes should fall this year The export climate index fell to a three-year low in January and suggests that exports will barely grow at all this year. The monthly trade data have been even more downbeat as they showed export... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) A pick-up in home purchase mortgage applications at the start of the year suggests the 1.2% m/m drop in existing home sales in January will soon be reversed. But the bigger picture is that a slowing... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The housing downturn isn’t over yet The rise in auction clearing rates in early February is probably just temporary. Housing remains overvalued and other leading indicators point to a continued decline in house prices. We therefore... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Cash-out refinancing set for further gains High levels of home equity and falling mortgage interest rates mean the number of cash-out refinances will reach a 10-year high over the next couple of years. But tight credit standards and cautious... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Slow market squeezes mortgage lenders Facing weak demand, lenders have cut their interest margins to compete for business, dampening the impact that rate hikes have had on mortgage pricing. But looking ahead, there is limited room for... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Smaller tax refunds a headwind for house prices Tax returns processed so far indicate households are set for smaller refunds this year. For most, the drop in expected income will not be enough to derail plans to buy a home. But, to the extent... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jan.) Housing demand fell sharply in January, but we doubt that heralds a collapse in prices. But conversely, even if a Brexit deal is done, the market is unlikely to rebound. In all, we expect the housing... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Jan.) The 0.1% monthly decline in the Teranet House Price Index in January equates to a decent 0.4% m/m increase in seasonally-adjusted terms. But the annual pace of house price inflation dropped back to... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are homes being built in the right places? There has been a long-running mismatch between where homes are built, and where people are moving to. The government’s standard method for assessing new housing need targets this discrepancy, and... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rising participation to provide less of a lift to housing The participation rate for younger Americans had risen to a 10-year high by the end of 2018, with women driving most of that gain. That will have supported both rental and home purchase demand. But... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market stumbles along House price growth has slowed to a near standstill, while mortgage approvals are falling. Much of that reflects the high level of house prices, although Brexit uncertainty is increasingly taking its... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Surge in mortgage applications will prove short-lived Mortgage applications for home purchase briefly touched a nine-year high in the middle of January, as a drop in mortgage interest rates tempted home buyers back into the market. However, even as... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
