Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) While the solid rise in retail sales values in November suggests that households are still coping well with falling house prices and sluggish incomes gains, we think that consumption growth will slow... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Key calls for 2019 Our forecast for a steady decline in mortgage rates over 2019, to 4.3% by the end of the year, is significantly below consensus. But, despite that, we have below-consensus calls for home sales and... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Could Hong Kong withstand a property crash? With property sales slowing and monetary conditions likely to remain tight over the coming year, there are growing concerns about a possible slump in home prices in Hong Kong. We expect prices to fall... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack A weak end to the year Much like the year just passed, 2019 will be a subdued year for housing. Transactions and mortgage approvals saw no meaningful gains, house prices grew very slowly, and all signs point to a weak first... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage demand stalls despite fall in interest rates Mortgage interest rates saw further declines in December, and look set to drop back to 4.5% over the next few weeks. However, a spike in mortgage applications for home purchase in the first half of... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update New home supply will weigh on house prices Given the huge amount of new supply set to reach the housing market this year, the recent deterioration in home sales is bad news for house prices. While house price weakness will be painful, the end... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) House prices rose by 1.3% in 2018, and we think the weakness in house price growth will persist this year. After all, if a Brexit deal is done, the housing market would still be weighed down by high... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Housing slowdown to persist in 2019 2019 will be another subdued year for housing, with no meaningful recovery in transactions and house price growth. Housebuilding has likely passed its peak, and will fall gently this year, as weak... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending and Nationwide House Prices House price growth and mortgage approvals softened towards the end of 2018 – consistent with our weak outlook for the housing market. Indeed, even assuming that a Brexit deal is struck this year, we... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) The drop in mortgage applications in December, even as interest rates saw further falls, supports our view that lower financing costs will not be enough to boost housing market activity in 2019. A... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) House prices fell the most in December since the current downturn started and a further deterioration in the balance between supply and demand suggests that prices in Melbourne and Sydney will keep... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage market can weather the shutdown If it continues, the partial Federal shutdown is likely to lead to a decline in the mortgage closing rate. But lenders showed flexibility to get around the virtual closure of the FHA and IRS during... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Getting banks to lend again We doubt that the phasing-out of caps on interest-only loans will provide much support to the housing market as there’s still a large imbalance between supply and demand. And the government won’t... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Tighter credit conditions will weigh on growth The latest NAB survey showed that firms are facing the largest difficulties getting finance since 2012, which suggests that credit growth may slow sharply. (See Chart 1.) That may be a reflection of... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack A mixed year for markets 2018 has been a mixed bag for India’s financial markets. The bond market has seen significant gyrations, only for yields to end the year virtually flat from 12 months ago. Meanwhile, the 7% rise in... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) Existing home sales rose for the second consecutive month in November, and a recovery in mortgage demand over the past month suggests they will see further gains over the turn of the year. But with... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
