Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The rebound in retail sales in August provides further evidence that households are still proving reasonably resilient to low income growth and falling house prices. But with house prices falling at... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) Since the end of August, the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate has risen by 16bps, to stand at 4.96% in the final week of September. Given that, the corresponding 0.9% m/m rise in mortgage... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Sep.) House price growth held firm at 2% y/y in September. And on a regional basis, the South of England tended to underperform the rest of the UK. Looking ahead, we expect that regional trend to continue... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is rate lock-in weighing on home sales? Households electing not to move to avoid giving up a record low, fixed mortgage rate provide one potential explanation for the slowdown in home sales in recent months. However, the available evidence... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Aug.) Mortgage approvals rose in August, but lending is still broadly flat on an annual basis. Looking ahead, with house prices set to stay very high relative to incomes and interest rates rising, our... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) The largest monthly fall in house prices since the global financial crisis underlines that the current downturn may well prove to be the longest and deepest in Australia’s modern history. 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) The deterioration in business conditions in the Q3 Tankan supports our view that GDP growth slowed last quarter. That said, firms remain optimistic about the outlook for capital spending and the... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Housebuilding (Q2) Housing starts have declined in response to weakening demand. Looking ahead, there are few reasons to expect demand to bounce back. As a result, we expect builders to slow construction further over... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Aug.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase edged down in August, leaving lending at the bottom end of the range that has been seen over the last few years. With interest rates rising and no sign of a... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack A good year for growth The surprising strength of economic growth in the second quarter has led us to revise up our forecasts for GDP growth in the 2018 calendar year from 2.5% to 3.2% for Australia and from 2.5% to 2.7%... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Jul.) The FHFA and Case-Shiller both reported a small rise in house prices of 0.2% m/m in July. That continues the run of weaker house price gains seen since the spring. Higher mortgage interest rates are... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack London Housing Chart Book: London’s downturn set to persist In line with our expectations, housing transactions in London are falling, while house prices are on a gradual downward trajectory. Even so, house prices are still very high and with interest rates on... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will the slowdown in rental growth persist? Slowing rental growth has been driven by cooling tenant demand growth. And in the near term, there are few signs of an imminent revival in rents. But with the supply and demand balance more likely to... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) The downward trend in existing homes sales seen since April came to a halt in August, with sales unchanged over the month. But that still left sales at 2½-year lows. With interest rates set to rise... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug.) The headline 9.2% m/m rise in housing starts in August hides an otherwise disappointing report. The jump in starts was driven by the volatile multifamily sector, with single-family construction seeing... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Jul.) According to the UK House Price Index, house price inflation slowed in July, bringing it further in line with the other main measures. And looking ahead, we expect house price growth to continue to... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
