UK Housing Market Update No sign of easing in deposit constraints The interest premium on high LTV lending is falling, as banks push to maintain lending flows in the face of weak housing demand. But we don’t expect that to trigger a fresh boom in lending. 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly FDI defying trade tensions, property price data quirks The recent strength of direct investment into China is a reminder that, despite rising US tariff barriers, the country remains an attractive destination for foreign firms. Even so, policymakers... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage gains revised away The contraction in Japan’s economy in Q3 should prove short-lived. But the income data released alongside the GDP figures provide a more lasting reason for concern. The Bank of Japan had been able to... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Oct.) Favourable base effects explain the pick-up in house price inflation in October. Prices only inched up on the month in seasonally-adjusted terms, and we suspect that house price inflation will slow... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Amazon HQ2s will give small boost to rental demand Amazon’s decision to base its new, secondary HQs in New York City and Northern Virginia does not mean that rental markets in these cities will enjoy the kind of surge seen in Seattle. At the margins... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Sep.) While house price inflation edged up in September, the wider trend is still one of slowing growth. With house prices set to stay high relative to incomes, interest rates rising and house price... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Oct.) The October activity and spending data were mostly better than anticipated. But despite an uptick in industrial output and investment, we doubt that economic growth has bottomed out just yet. 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update It’s not all bad news in the housing market Amongst all the housing market gloom it is easy to overlook the fact that homes are selling quickly, prospective buyer traffic volumes are high and mortgage lenders are approving a high share of... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Under-35 homeownership rate will soon flatten out Unlike some, we do not think that the latest rise in homeownership among the under 35s heralds an imminent revival in housing market activity. In fact, it tells us more about the previous strength of... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Doubts about USMCA, positive signs from housing While the US midterm results mean that there is now even more uncertainty about when the USMCA might be signed by Congress, we do not think that the trade deal itself is in doubt. Meanwhile, there... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct.) Falling buyer confidence and subdued house price expectations will keep the housing market flat-lining until the end of the year. Rising interest rates will then prevent it from gaining traction in... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) The 30-year mortgage rate rose above 5% for the first time in over seven years in October, helping to explain why home purchase mortgage demand fell to a two-year low in October. If we are right in... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Oct.) The Halifax measure of house price growth fell to a 5-year low in October, echoing last week’s Nationwide index and supporting our view of a subdued outlook for UK house prices. 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update House prices will fall further despite supply response The recent slump in building approvals suggests that the supply overhang in the housing market may disappear next year. But we still think that the current downturn will prove to be the longest and... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack House price inflation heading to 1% The outlook for the housing market is subdued. In the near term, rate rises and signs of growing lender caution will add to the headwinds facing the market. That said, at least house prices are now... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Home sales fall again New and existing home sales fell again in September, as higher mortgage interest rates weighed on demand. But those homes that are selling are doing so quickly, and the strong labour market argues... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
