China Economics Focus China Property Handbook China’s property sector is crucial to the economy’s performance and to China’s demand for many materials. In this updated and expanded Handbook, we discuss the drivers of the property cycle and answer... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Slowing home sales good news for the rental market Home sales are set to tread water over the next couple of years, which is good news for the rental sector. If Americans aren’t buying homes, many will look to rent one instead. Admittedly, the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) We suspect the decline in house prices in the eight capital cities is going to continue and house prices will go on to eventually fall by at least 12%. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Nov.) House price growth accelerated in November. But that didn’t alter the wider trend of slowing house price inflation. With house prices very high relative to incomes and interest rates on an upward... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget surplus, looser lending restrictions The rapid decline in the budget deficit suggests that the Government may announce higher spending or tax cuts in next year’s Budget. And Labor has pledged to eliminate a number of tax privileges if it... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Oct.) House purchase mortgage approvals rose in October. But that did little to offset the weakness in lending seen over the last year. Moreover, there are few reasons to believe that the latest rise is the... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation set to fall sharply The recent slump in crude oil prices means that the tailwind to consumer price inflation from soaring energy prices won’t be sustained. After boosting Australia’s headline inflation by 0.6 percentage... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct.) Even after a significant upward revision to September’s estimate, the 8.9% m/m drop in new home sales in October was enough to send sales to a 2½-year low. But a drop in mortgage interest rates over... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch housing boom near its peak The housing boom that has been one of the prime drivers of Dutch economic growth in recent years is likely to be close to its peak. As a result, growth is likely to slow in the coming years. But we do... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Looser LTV constraints won’t reignite housing market The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to ease mortgage lending restrictions probably won’t result in a major pick-up in lending and home sales. And with house prices looking stretched relative to... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Sep.) With higher mortgage interest rates weighing on housing demand, it is not a surprise that the FHFA and Case-Shiller reported slower annual house price growth in September. We doubt mortgage rates have... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Oct.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase ended three months of decline with a small rise in October. But with house prices high and interest rates expected to rise next year, the outlook for lending is... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Weak outlook for housing supply Having surged in recent years, office to residential conversions have passed their peak. And conversions of other property types to residential are unlikely to soon make up the difference. Combined... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) The first rise in existing home sales for six months in October provided a rare piece of good housing market news. That doesn’t signal the end of the slowdown, but it does indicate that the strong... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) Single-family housing starts dropped for the second month in a row in October, and building permits saw their first annual decline in 4½ years. Faltering new home demand has hit homebuilder confidence... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Swine fever hogs headlines, but impact still small The spread of African swine fever (ASF) to China’s leading pig-rearing province (Sichuan) last week is an alarming development. But despite its rapid expansion across the country (the disease has... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
