US Housing Market Update Under-35 homeownership rate will soon flatten out Unlike some, we do not think that the latest rise in homeownership among the under 35s heralds an imminent revival in housing market activity. In fact, it tells us more about the previous strength of... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Doubts about USMCA, positive signs from housing While the US midterm results mean that there is now even more uncertainty about when the USMCA might be signed by Congress, we do not think that the trade deal itself is in doubt. Meanwhile, there... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct.) Falling buyer confidence and subdued house price expectations will keep the housing market flat-lining until the end of the year. Rising interest rates will then prevent it from gaining traction in... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) The 30-year mortgage rate rose above 5% for the first time in over seven years in October, helping to explain why home purchase mortgage demand fell to a two-year low in October. If we are right in... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Oct.) The Halifax measure of house price growth fell to a 5-year low in October, echoing last week’s Nationwide index and supporting our view of a subdued outlook for UK house prices. 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update House prices will fall further despite supply response The recent slump in building approvals suggests that the supply overhang in the housing market may disappear next year. But we still think that the current downturn will prove to be the longest and... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack House price inflation heading to 1% The outlook for the housing market is subdued. In the near term, rate rises and signs of growing lender caution will add to the headwinds facing the market. That said, at least house prices are now... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Home sales fall again New and existing home sales fell again in September, as higher mortgage interest rates weighed on demand. But those homes that are selling are doing so quickly, and the strong labour market argues... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Causes of weakening housing demand Rising interest rates, declining house price expectations and cuts to the tax advantages of owning a home have all weighed on housing demand since the turn of the year. Of these, the drop in house... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct.) According to the Nationwide, house price growth hit a five-year low in October. That result is in line with our expectation that house price inflation will subside to 1% or so next year. 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) The continued fall in house prices in October is consistent with our view that prices will ultimately drop by at least 12%, making the current downturn the longest and deepest in Australia’s modern... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Aug.) The apparent rebound in house price pressures, implied by the 0.6% m/m rise in August, reflects issues with the seasonal-adjustment process, rather than a sign that the slowdown in house price growth... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Sep.) Mortgage approvals fell in September, leaving lending broadly flat over the last three months. Looking ahead, with house prices very high, interest rates on the rise and mortgage lenders becoming more... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank aiming for at least three more hikes As well as hiking interest rates to 1.75% this week, the Bank of Canada explicitly confirmed that it intends to raise the policy rate back to its estimate of the neutral rate. We doubt it will make it... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage lender caution set to persist Given the risks facing the housing market, the recent rise in lenders’ risk aversion is likely to persist. This supports our view that mortgage approvals will see little growth over the next two years... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Sep.) Mortgage lending is on a gentle downward trajectory, as mortgage approvals for house purchase fell for a third consecutive month in September. Looking ahead, with house prices set to stay very high... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
