Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Housing downturn will force RBA to cut rates We think that 2019 will be the year in which previous excesses in Australia’s housing market will catch up with the economy. We believe that the deepening housing downturn will become a far bigger... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Dec.) December’s RICS data support our view that the housing market will stay weak in 2019. Indeed, with Brexit uncertainty set to be extended, we expect little or no growth in transactions this year. 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Nov.) While annual house price growth was broadly flat in November, we expect price inflation to slow across 2019. That will be driven by the high level of house prices and interest rate normalisation, as... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why our house price forecast is bottom of the pack Our forecast for a rise in house prices of 2% in 2019 is close to the bottom of consensus. That view is supported by evidence that housing market conditions have loosened, and that the size of... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Housebuilding (Q3) Housing starts surged in Q3, but we doubt that marks the start of a new, upward trend. Indeed, with the wider housing market set to stay weak and Help-to-Buy on the way out, we expect housing starts... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Remortgaging set to peak in 2019 After growing rapidly in recent years, we think remortgaging will peak in 2019. That view is driven by the shift towards longer duration fixed-rate loans, which has reduced the need for borrowers to... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Dec.) The 0.3% seasonally-adjusted rise in house prices in December masked very divergent trends between cities. Sales-to-new listing ratios suggest that this divergence will widen in the coming months... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Oil, housing and the labour market While the recent falls in oil prices may boost consumer spending, they render investment in new LNG projects less attractive and may therefore restrain mining investment. Meanwhile, the slump in... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) While the solid rise in retail sales values in November suggests that households are still coping well with falling house prices and sluggish incomes gains, we think that consumption growth will slow... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Key calls for 2019 Our forecast for a steady decline in mortgage rates over 2019, to 4.3% by the end of the year, is significantly below consensus. But, despite that, we have below-consensus calls for home sales and... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Could Hong Kong withstand a property crash? With property sales slowing and monetary conditions likely to remain tight over the coming year, there are growing concerns about a possible slump in home prices in Hong Kong. We expect prices to fall... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack A weak end to the year Much like the year just passed, 2019 will be a subdued year for housing. Transactions and mortgage approvals saw no meaningful gains, house prices grew very slowly, and all signs point to a weak first... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage demand stalls despite fall in interest rates Mortgage interest rates saw further declines in December, and look set to drop back to 4.5% over the next few weeks. However, a spike in mortgage applications for home purchase in the first half of... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update New home supply will weigh on house prices Given the huge amount of new supply set to reach the housing market this year, the recent deterioration in home sales is bad news for house prices. While house price weakness will be painful, the end... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) House prices rose by 1.3% in 2018, and we think the weakness in house price growth will persist this year. After all, if a Brexit deal is done, the housing market would still be weighed down by high... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Housing slowdown to persist in 2019 2019 will be another subdued year for housing, with no meaningful recovery in transactions and house price growth. Housebuilding has likely passed its peak, and will fall gently this year, as weak... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
