One million vacant homes a risk to our forecasts

If a large number of the over one million homes being kept vacant as the owner does not wish to sell were to be brought to market, house prices are likely to drop by 5% to 10%. But while slowing house price expectations may persuade some owners to sell, the fall in interest rates we expect will keep the opportunity cost of an empty home low. That will prevent a surge of supply over the next couple of years.