UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Aug.) While the revamped Halifax House Price Index pointed to slightly faster annual house price growth in August, it is a far cry from the unusually strong rates shown by the old series. Nonetheless, with... 6th September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Stuck in limbo July saw the second consecutive monthly rise in new buyer enquiries and house purchase mortgage approvals, as Brexit uncertainty briefly eased. (See Chart 1.) But with house prices very high and... 5th September 2019 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) August’s rebound in overall mortgage applications was driven by buoyant refinancing activity, while home purchase applications fell. A further drop in the 10-year Treasury yield means that mortgage... 4th September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Is private Right to Buy a good idea? Labour’s proposed Right to Buy scheme for private tenants could have severe unintended consequences. The supply of property available to rent would fall, pushing up rents across the board. Moreover... 2nd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australian dollar has further to fall At the start of the year, we were a lone voice forecasting that the Australian dollar would decline to US$0.65 by year-end. The Australian dollar has come under increasing pressure this month on a... 2nd September 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (August) The latest survey data suggest that exports have continued to struggle but that factory activity was propped up by stronger infrastructure spending. 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The 0.8% m/m rise in house prices in August means the housing market is now in full rebound. We expect prices to rise by 5% from their trough this year, and by 10% in 2020 supported by low interest... 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jul.) House purchase mortgage approvals saw a gentle recovery in July. But with uncertainty set to intensify in the coming months, the rise in lending probably won’t be sustained. 30th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Tighter credit conditions another brake on home sales Concerns around the economic outlook have encouraged banks to tighten mortgage lending standards, offsetting some of the impact of lower interest rates on home sales. Surveys suggest that tightening... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Jul.) The rise in mortgage approvals published by UK Finance should be interpreted with care. It probably reflects lenders competing for market share, rather than a market-wide recovery in lending. 27th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Political risk back on the agenda Despite the poor global outlook, GDP growth across Emerging Asia actually picked up slightly in the second quarter, and our forecast is for a further gradual recovery over the remainder of the year... 26th August 2019 · 16 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jul.) The substantial drop in new home sales in July is not as bad it looks, as a large upward revision to the previous month’s estimate meant that decline came from a 12-year high. A slowing economy rules... 23rd August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update How will rents perform as the economy slows? Rental growth typically falls back during economic slowdowns, but we think rents will hold up relatively well over the next couple of years. With the rental vacancy rate close to record lows the... 22nd August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update A stealthy improvement in valuations Accelerating wage growth has lowered the house price to earnings ratio, even as house prices themselves have continued to climb. Indeed, London has already seen an 11% drop in earnings-adjusted prices... 22nd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Should we be worried about rising loan losses? Loan losses have remained low throughout the housing downturn but we suspect that they will pick up soon, driven by higher write-offs on corporate loans. However, loan losses tend to lag changes in... 22nd August 2019 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul.) Existing home sales managed their first year-on-year rise for 17-months in July, but that is not the start of a sustained upward trend. Home purchase mortgage demand has not received much of a boost... 21st August 2019 · 2 mins read
