Canada Economics Weekly New home sales rebound The recent rebound in new home sales in Toronto is an encouraging sign that the local housing market is not about to emulate the sharp falls in prices in Vancouver. 4,794 new homes were sold in... 28th June 2019 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Home equity loans to have limited impact The full details of the new first-time buyer (FTB) equity loan scheme do not change our view that it will have little effect on the housing market. While the recent drop in mortgage rates will help to... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Assessing the case for build to rent A high house price to rent ratio disadvantages the development of build-to-rent, relative to build-to-sell. And with capital values unlikely to grow as quickly as they have done in the past, total... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q1) High LTI and LTV lending saw little movement in Q1, despite competitive pressures on lenders, suggesting that mortgage lending is primarily constrained by demand. With uncertainty set to persist for... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May) Despite mortgage interest rates falling to 18-month lows, mortgage applications for home purchase declined steadily over May. Concerns over the health of the economy, and a lack of inventory, is... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Multifamily starts set to ease as demand weakens The number of apartments completed for the rental sector has reached its highest level since records began 20-years ago. But absorption rates are low, and a slowing economy means household formation... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Unemployment rates to rise The deterioration in the New Zealand and Australian economies is starting to flow through to a softening in the labour market. Admittedly, employment growth in Australia has risen to the highest rate... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May) We expect the pace of house price declines to gradually ease this year with house prices reaching a trough by the end of the year. We suspect house prices may start to rise again thereafter, by 3% in... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Apr.) April’s strong rise in house purchase mortgage approvals more than reversed March’s fall. But we doubt that signals the start of a sustained recovery in lending. 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (May) Uncertainty and the already high level of prices kept house price inflation subdued in May. Looking ahead, we expect these factors to keep price growth weak to the end of 2019 – at just 1% y/y. 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Fall in rates won’t trigger a surge in mortgage demand The recent fall in the 10-year Treasury yield means the 30-year mortgage rate is set to drop to 1½-year lows over the next few weeks. But we doubt that will trigger another jump in mortgage... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Who is winning the trade war? With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus House prices may rebound in early 2020 We expect the current housing downturn to end around the turn of the year. We think that house prices may rise by 3% from their trough in 2020 and by 5% in 2021. While rising house prices should boost... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Mar.) March’s easing in house price growth was consistent with our expectations. Looking ahead, we expect that slowdown to continue, although with inventory levels very low and mortgage interest rates... 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Apr.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase saw a surprisingly large rise in April, but we doubt that signals the start of a sustained rebound in lending. Indeed, with all other signs consistent with... 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Outlook for housing market has brightened Proposed changes by Australia’s bank regulator will increase the maximum loan size for some borrowers. While that is unlikely to bolster housing demand much at this stage, as the RBA lowers interest... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
