US Housing Market Chart Pack Single-family housing starts set for another strong year The 30-year mortgage rate ended 2019 at close to 4%, and it is set to stay at around that level over the next or so. But tighter credit conditions will offset some of the benefit of lower rates on... 14th January 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Could lower for longer rates boost house prices? Lower than expected interest rates would do little to boost house prices. After all, a shallower path for Bank Rate would reflect weaker than expected economic conditions. And in any case, there is... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Debt-to-income ratio key for house price outlook With mortgage rates set for a period of stability over the next couple of years changes in credit conditions, and in particular debt-to-income ratios, will be an important driver of house prices... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook The road to recovery After a year to forget in 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more effective measures to deal with the malaise in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a... 9th January 2020 · 19 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) A 1.9% m/m drop in mortgage applications for home purchase in December left demand at the end of 2019 unchanged from the start of the year. The boost to demand from lower mortgage interest rates was... 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) The Halifax index recorded another jump in house prices in December. This could signal a Boris bounce, but with price gains on the other main indices much weaker, today’s data probably overstate the... 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Nov.) November saw a marginal rise in house purchase mortgage approvals, suggesting that pre-election uncertainty had little effect on housing market activity. Looking ahead, given high house prices, a lack... 3rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Dec.) Annual house price growth accelerated in December, ending the year a little faster than expected. But that pick-up largely reflected base effects. Looking ahead, with house prices still very high and... 3rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soaring house prices won’t prevent further easing Australia’s house prices rose the most in a decade last quarter and leading indicators suggest they will keep growing at an annual rate of more than 10%. However, there are no signs that households... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) With home sales climbing to a fresh high, our sales to listings ratio now suggests that house prices will soon be rising by around 10% per annum. 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Nov.) The rise in new home sales in November came from a downwardly revised October reading but, looking through the volatility, sales have had a good year. Low mortgage rates, an increase in the supply of... 23rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack London Housing Chart Book: Downward price pressures ease in London Downward price pressures in London have eased, driven by a slump in homes coming up for sale. But with house prices high and mortgage interest rates close to their floor, that is unlikely to drive a... 20th December 2019 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) The inventory of existing homes for sale dropped to a record low in November, which helps explain why home sales declined. We doubt that supply picture will improve over the next year and, coupled... 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack US demanding implausibly large import ramp up China’s apparent reluctance to commit to the extra $200bn of US imports relative to 2017 levels that the US is requesting over the next two years as part of the Phase One deal is understandable... 18th December 2019 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) The activity and spending indicators beat expectations. But retail sales and real estate activity are weaker than the headline figures suggest. And we think growth will resume its downward trend... 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
