China Data Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) After worsening across the board in July, growth in industrial production, capital spending and retail sales fell even further last month. And with a strong rebound unlikely any time soon, we... 16th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Why have mortgage spreads widened? The sharp rise in the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rate primarily reflects the speed at which yields dropped back. But tighter credit conditions also look to be... 13th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Stronger housing starts won’t prevent slowdown The continued strength of housing starts in August could be a sign that we are overestimating the size of the decline to come. This is unlikely to prevent a broader slowdown in GDP growth, however. 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug.) Having seen a small improvement across June and July, housing demand lost all upward momentum in August. Looking ahead, given the high level of house prices and ongoing political uncertainty, a... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Demand unresponsive to lower mortgage rates The 30-year mortgage rate has dropped to its lowest level since late 2016, but that has not given much of a boost to home demand. Indeed, mortgage applications for home purchase dropped back over July... 11th September 2019 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What do rising house prices mean for the economy? The recent strong pace of house price gains is unlikely to last as income growth is set to remain subdued. We expect house prices to rise by around 5% next year and in 2021. A rebound in house prices... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Has the Halifax index been fixed? After spending much of the last year as an outlier, IHS Markit has fixed the Halifax index. In line with the other main measures, the index is now recording sluggish house price growth. And with the... 6th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Aug.) While the revamped Halifax House Price Index pointed to slightly faster annual house price growth in August, it is a far cry from the unusually strong rates shown by the old series. Nonetheless, with... 6th September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Stuck in limbo July saw the second consecutive monthly rise in new buyer enquiries and house purchase mortgage approvals, as Brexit uncertainty briefly eased. (See Chart 1.) But with house prices very high and... 5th September 2019 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) August’s rebound in overall mortgage applications was driven by buoyant refinancing activity, while home purchase applications fell. A further drop in the 10-year Treasury yield means that mortgage... 4th September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Is private Right to Buy a good idea? Labour’s proposed Right to Buy scheme for private tenants could have severe unintended consequences. The supply of property available to rent would fall, pushing up rents across the board. Moreover... 2nd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australian dollar has further to fall At the start of the year, we were a lone voice forecasting that the Australian dollar would decline to US$0.65 by year-end. The Australian dollar has come under increasing pressure this month on a... 2nd September 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (August) The latest survey data suggest that exports have continued to struggle but that factory activity was propped up by stronger infrastructure spending. 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The 0.8% m/m rise in house prices in August means the housing market is now in full rebound. We expect prices to rise by 5% from their trough this year, and by 10% in 2020 supported by low interest... 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jul.) House purchase mortgage approvals saw a gentle recovery in July. But with uncertainty set to intensify in the coming months, the rise in lending probably won’t be sustained. 30th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Tighter credit conditions another brake on home sales Concerns around the economic outlook have encouraged banks to tighten mortgage lending standards, offsetting some of the impact of lower interest rates on home sales. Surveys suggest that tightening... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
