US Housing Market Chart Pack Tight markets support rental growth The 30-year mortgage rate increased to an eight-week high in October, which helps explain why mortgage applications for home purchase have been trending down since mid-September. A lack of inventory... 5th November 2019 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What will New Zealand’s policymakers do in a crisis? Our central scenario is that cutting interest rates to 0.5% will be enough to weather the economic slowdown in 2020. And if required, fiscal policy and macroprudential tools could be used to help... 5th November 2019 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) Our sales to new listings ratio suggests that house prices will continue to surge in the coming months before moderating in the new year. We expect prices to rise by 5% in 2020 and 2021. 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Inventory of cheaper homes has halved since 2012 The number of vacant single-family homes for sale has dropped 25% since the start of 2012. But the situation is far worse at the cheaper end of the market, where the inventory of homes priced under... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack IMF too optimistic on Australia and New Zealand In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicted Australia’s economy to expand by 1.7% in 2019 and by 2.3% in 2020. While the 2019 forecast is consistent with our own expectations, their... 31st October 2019 · 10 mins read
China Chart Pack Corporate earnings falling short of expectations The corporate earnings season currently underway in China has been disappointing. Admittedly, the Q3 results published so far point to a slight improvement in year-on-year growth in earnings per share... 30th October 2019 · 11 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Sep.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase and remortgaging rose in September, but annual growth in both were still weak. Looking ahead, the outlook is subdued. Even if a Brexit deal is agreed soon, house... 29th October 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct.) House prices saw subdued growth in October. And while in wage-adjusted terms, prices are on a gradual downward trajectory, any meaningful downward adjustment will take time. Looking ahead, we expect... 29th October 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus How prolonged will the downturn in retail rents be? In the near-term, we think that the ongoing consequences of CVAs and the large share of over-rented property will exacerbate the structural reduction in demand for retail property, causing rental... 25th October 2019 · 11 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep.) New home sales more-or-less held their ground in September, leaving them close to 12-year highs. Healthy levels of inventory will help sales make further progress over the next year or so but, given... 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Limited scope for housing market recovery Regardless of what happens with Brexit in the months ahead, a revival in the owner occupier housing market is unlikely. Even if a Brexit deal is agreed soon, we expect to see only a small improvement... 24th October 2019 · 29 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Sep.) Mortgage approvals among the high street banks slipped in September. And while annual growth on the UK Finance measure has stayed strong, that reflects a shift in market share towards the main high... 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices (Aug.) Annual house price growth on the FHFA measure resumed its downward trend in August, slowing to a five-year low of 4.6%. Lower mortgage interest rates should help price growth stabilise over the... 23rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened... 23rd October 2019 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Update Could house price growth accelerate? Some leading indicators of house price growth, such as the size of mortgage approvals and months’ supply of new homes on the market, are pointing to an acceleration in growth to around 5% y/y by the... 22nd October 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) Following two months of gains, existing home sales dropped back in September. Given mortgage applications for home purchase have been more-or-less flat over the past few months, that decline in... 22nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
