US Housing Market Update Fiscal package will prevent record high delinquencies A surge in the unemployment rate to 12% in the second quarter will put upward pressure on the mortgage delinquency rate, but an additional $600 week in unemployment insurance should keep the rate... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Demand shock to hit rents in 2020 The economic hit from the coronavirus will cool rental demand, while social distancing measures will tip market dynamics in favour of renters. We have downgraded our forecast for rents and now expect... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - House prices should start to fall soon The ban on home auctions and open house viewings will probably result in lower home sales and there’s a growing risk that the government will ban the buying and selling of real estate altogether. Even... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus and Yes Bank debacle dash hopes of recovery It has been a dreadful few weeks for India’s economy. This started with the release of GDP data showing that growth in Q4 slowed to its weakest pace since 2013. And hopes of a near-term recovery have... 19th March 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Feb.) Annual house price growth on the Halifax index cooled in February, suggesting that the market has lost steam. Looking ahead, with the coronavirus likely to affect sentiment as well as economic... 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) The rally in house prices continued in February and all the leading indicators suggest that prices will keep rising at a rapid pace. However, affordability is deteriorating rapidly and we expect price... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Threat from the coronavirus continues to grow We estimate GDP growth in Australia continued to muddle along in Q4, edging up from 0.4% q/q in Q3 to 0.5% q/q. In New Zealand, we think a stronger contribution from net trade was offset by a decline... 26th February 2020 · 10 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Dec.) Low mortgage rates and tight inventory have supported house prices in recent months, with Case-Shiller reporting a jump in annual growth to 3.8% in December, a 10-month high. But looking ahead... 25th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Teranet House Prices (Jan.) House prices rose by less than we expected in January but, with the sales-to-new listing ratio elevated and the mortgage stress tests set to become less stringent, the pace of gains will accelerate... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jan.) Annual house price growth was broadly flat in January according to the Halifax index, suggesting that the surge in prices around the election may be short lived. Indeed, with house prices still high... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - How overvalued is Australian housing? Even though house prices in Sydney and Melbourne plunged during the housing downturn, the house price to earnings ratio in both cities is still 40% higher than it was a decade ago. However, we think... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.) House prices continued to surge in January. But our sales to new listings ratio suggests that price growth may be approaching a peak. That’s consistent with our forecast for price growth to moderate... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Stretched valuations to keep lid on house price growth While not at dangerous levels, the house price-to-earnings ratio does suggest home valuations are stretched. With mortgage interest rates unlikely to fall much further, and limited prospect for a... 31st January 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Housebuilding (Q3) Housing starts rose in Q3, but construction is still down sharply on an annual basis. Looking ahead however, improving sentiment suggest that further falls in construction will be limited. 29th January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) January’s house price data show further evidence of a Boris bounce. But while faster price growth reflects improved sentiment, the election did nothing to lower house prices, boost incomes or loosen... 29th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Constraints on homebuilding beginning to ease There are encouraging signs that the cost and availability of materials, lots and labour are all starting to improve. Coupled with strong new home demand, and a shift toward the construction of... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
