House prices to remain below pre-virus level for years Income support and mortgage relief will reduce the chance that people are forced to sell homes. But with immigration slumping, house prices are unlikely to recover quickly from the 5% fall that we... 29th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update House prices to fall, but not crash Unlike in previous downturns, residential property has not been the root cause this time. Even so, house prices will not escape this recession unscathed. If policy support proves effective, if... 29th April 2020 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Feb.) Low inventory and mortgage rates helped house price growth accelerate over the turn of the year. But the sharp drop in housing demand caused by the coronavirus means prices are set for a modest fall... 28th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Shadow banking woes deepen Measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus will increase strains among traditional banks, but the shadow banking sector – still reeling from a large-scale default 18 months ago – is likely to... 22nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - House prices may fall sharply in the coming years The RBNZ’s decision to lift LVR restrictions is unlikely to provide much support to house prices in New Zealand. We think that the sharp decline in home sales and confidence together with the likely... 22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Teranet House Prices (Mar.) House price inflation accelerated to a 22-month high in March but, given the disruption caused by the coronavirus outbreak, prices are set to fall in the coming months. 20th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Output to fall the most since Great Depression The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming... 20th April 2020 · 20 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Mar.) Coronavirus measures have put the housing market on ice. With buyer enquiries and agreed sales in freefall, the market is on track to see a 70% fall in sales this quarter. Meanwhile the collapse in... 9th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Output to fall more than during global financial crisis Lockdowns will soon be imposed across much of Japan, triggering a decline of more than 10% in economic activity this quarter. The government’s latest fiscal package is intended to help firms stay... 8th April 2020 · 19 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Mar.) The Halifax index recorded flat house prices in March, but that tells us little about the effect of the coronavirus. And with very few housing transactions likely to go through across April and May... 7th April 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update What does the housebuilder share slump tell us? The slump in housebuilder share prices reflects the coming collapse in housing sales, which will force builders to shut down production for several months. Indeed, we now expect housing starts to drop... 3rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly SMEs, developers & exporters sitting out the recovery The first monthly data points for March add to broader evidence that activity began to bounce back last month. But the recovery already appears to be losing momentum and has been unevenly spread, with... 3rd April 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Mar.) House price growth accelerated in March, but that reflected sales agreed from before the coronavirus lockdown. Looking ahead, we now expect house prices to fall by around 3% this year. And with the... 2nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) Distress in the MBS market meant mortgage rates were volatile over March, but they started and ended the month at a record low of 3.47%. While that has helped refinance demand, applications for home... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) We think the continued rebound in house prices will come to an end before long as the virus outbreak reduces the volume of home sales and weighs on household incomes. 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Feb.) February saw strong rise in house purchase mortgage approvals, but the coronavirus will prevent any further gains over the coming months. Indeed, given the stringent social distancing measures now in... 30th March 2020 · 2 mins read
