Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) With home sales climbing to a fresh high, our sales to listings ratio now suggests that house prices will soon be rising by around 10% per annum. 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Nov.) The rise in new home sales in November came from a downwardly revised October reading but, looking through the volatility, sales have had a good year. Low mortgage rates, an increase in the supply of... 23rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack London Housing Chart Book: Downward price pressures ease in London Downward price pressures in London have eased, driven by a slump in homes coming up for sale. But with house prices high and mortgage interest rates close to their floor, that is unlikely to drive a... 20th December 2019 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) The inventory of existing homes for sale dropped to a record low in November, which helps explain why home sales declined. We doubt that supply picture will improve over the next year and, coupled... 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack US demanding implausibly large import ramp up China’s apparent reluctance to commit to the extra $200bn of US imports relative to 2017 levels that the US is requesting over the next two years as part of the Phase One deal is understandable... 18th December 2019 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) The activity and spending indicators beat expectations. But retail sales and real estate activity are weaker than the headline figures suggest. And we think growth will resume its downward trend... 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Focus The QM patch needs to be replaced, but with what? Against the CFPB’s expectations, use of the qualified mortgage patch has not declined since it was introduced in 2013. If it is not replaced before it expires in early 2021, we therefore anticipate... 13th December 2019 · 17 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov.) November’s survey data support our view that the housing market will struggle to gain any upward momentum next year. After all, with house prices high and mortgage interest rates unable to fall much... 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tax hike less damaging than previous ones The available data on retail sales, household spending as well as the Bank of Japan’s consumption activity index show that consumer spending fell broadly as much in October as in April 2014, when the... 11th December 2019 · 10 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q3) Lower prices have encouraged borrowers to take out higher LTV loans. But lenders have maintained their credit scoring standards and maximum LTI ratios, and that is unlikely to change anytime soon... 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2020 We think that GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand will fall short of expectations, forcing both the RBNZ and the RBA to cut interest rates more sharply than most expect. The consensus is that... 10th December 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack A subdued end to the year for housing Housing market activity and house price growth showed few signs of improvement at the end of 2019. Indeed, activity has, if anything, been cooling. That partly reflects economic and political... 9th December 2019 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) Concerns that a jump in the 10-year Treasury yield would herald a rise in mortgage rates look to have persuaded some buyers to bring forward a home purchase application, with demand rising to a five... 4th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) Our sales to new listings ratio suggests that house price growth will moderate before long. Even so given the sharp increase in recent months, we now expect prices to rise by around 7% in 2020 and 5%... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Election hopefuls pull their punches on housing Labour and the Conservatives have pulled their punches on housing policy. Indeed, only Labour’s pledge to boost social housing construction would materially affect the market. As a result, we expect... 29th November 2019 · 3 mins read
