UK Housing Market Outlook Weak fundamentals keep lid on housing activity While the decisive election result could lead to a modest increase in housing demand over the next couple of years, we doubt that this will translate into a substantive pick-up in transactions or... 23rd January 2020 · 28 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices / Existing Home Sales (Nov./Dec.) The inventory of existing homes dropped to another record low in December, which means the solid rise in sales seen over the month is unlikely to be the start of an upward trend. Even with market... 22nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Teranet House Prices (Dec.) House price inflation gained further momentum at the end of 2019, reaching an 11-month high of 2%. Given constrained supply, we expect house price inflation to accelerate to 7.5% in the next six... 20th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery 2019 was truly an annus horribilis for India’s economy but there are green shoots of a recovery in the data from the very end of the year. Industrial production growth jumped in November. Meanwhile... 20th January 2020 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) The surge in housing starts in December in part reflects a jump in the volatile multifamily sector and favourable weather conditions. But single-family starts are well-placed for another strong year... 17th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA’s work not done yet Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which... 16th January 2020 · 22 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) Mortgage availability rose in Q4, as competition between lenders picked up. But with banks competing on price, rather than lowering their credit standards, we think the housing market fundamentals... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Single-family housing starts set for another strong year The 30-year mortgage rate ended 2019 at close to 4%, and it is set to stay at around that level over the next or so. But tighter credit conditions will offset some of the benefit of lower rates on... 14th January 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Could lower for longer rates boost house prices? Lower than expected interest rates would do little to boost house prices. After all, a shallower path for Bank Rate would reflect weaker than expected economic conditions. And in any case, there is... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Debt-to-income ratio key for house price outlook With mortgage rates set for a period of stability over the next couple of years changes in credit conditions, and in particular debt-to-income ratios, will be an important driver of house prices... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook The road to recovery After a year to forget in 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more effective measures to deal with the malaise in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a... 9th January 2020 · 19 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) A 1.9% m/m drop in mortgage applications for home purchase in December left demand at the end of 2019 unchanged from the start of the year. The boost to demand from lower mortgage interest rates was... 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) The Halifax index recorded another jump in house prices in December. This could signal a Boris bounce, but with price gains on the other main indices much weaker, today’s data probably overstate the... 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Nov.) November saw a marginal rise in house purchase mortgage approvals, suggesting that pre-election uncertainty had little effect on housing market activity. Looking ahead, given high house prices, a lack... 3rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Dec.) Annual house price growth accelerated in December, ending the year a little faster than expected. But that pick-up largely reflected base effects. Looking ahead, with house prices still very high and... 3rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soaring house prices won’t prevent further easing Australia’s house prices rose the most in a decade last quarter and leading indicators suggest they will keep growing at an annual rate of more than 10%. However, there are no signs that households... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
