UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Jul.) The rise in mortgage approvals published by UK Finance should be interpreted with care. It probably reflects lenders competing for market share, rather than a market-wide recovery in lending. 27th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Political risk back on the agenda Despite the poor global outlook, GDP growth across Emerging Asia actually picked up slightly in the second quarter, and our forecast is for a further gradual recovery over the remainder of the year... 26th August 2019 · 16 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jul.) The substantial drop in new home sales in July is not as bad it looks, as a large upward revision to the previous month’s estimate meant that decline came from a 12-year high. A slowing economy rules... 23rd August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update How will rents perform as the economy slows? Rental growth typically falls back during economic slowdowns, but we think rents will hold up relatively well over the next couple of years. With the rental vacancy rate close to record lows the... 22nd August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update A stealthy improvement in valuations Accelerating wage growth has lowered the house price to earnings ratio, even as house prices themselves have continued to climb. Indeed, London has already seen an 11% drop in earnings-adjusted prices... 22nd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Should we be worried about rising loan losses? Loan losses have remained low throughout the housing downturn but we suspect that they will pick up soon, driven by higher write-offs on corporate loans. However, loan losses tend to lag changes in... 22nd August 2019 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul.) Existing home sales managed their first year-on-year rise for 17-months in July, but that is not the start of a sustained upward trend. Home purchase mortgage demand has not received much of a boost... 21st August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update House prices to benefit from lower mortgage rates With mortgage rates set to drop to 3.8% over the next couple of weeks, and inventory tight, we have edged up our house price forecast and now expect a rise of 3% this year. But a slowing economy and... 19th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Is owning still better than renting? The era of sustained, rapid house price growth appears to be over. But even so, the cost of owning a home is still favourable compared to renting and is likely to stay that way. That suggests that... 19th August 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) Single-family starts and building permits both increased in July, as lower interest rates, a tight existing home market and the decline in the backlog of previously authorised homes have encouraged... 16th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rise in sentiment good news for starts, not sales The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index has hit a record high, but the detail shows the share of households who see now as a good time to buy is still relatively low. High house prices and a lack... 14th August 2019 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jul.) After improving in June, economic conditions worsened across the board last month as growth in industrial production, capital spending and retail sales all dropped back. We see more weakness on the... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update A surge in London rents is coming London’s rental market is shifting to a new phase of adjustment. Low returns and tax changes are driving landlords from the market, while rising wages and low unemployment are supporting tenant demand... 13th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Time to worry about Russia’s household credit boom? The recent pace of Russian household lending looks frothy, but the central bank already appears to have taken some of the steam out of the credit boom. Even if household loans start turning sour... 8th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.) The latest RICS survey showed a housing market struggling to gather any upward momentum. With Brexit uncertainty poised to intensify in the coming months, we expect house prices and transactions to... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Impending house supply shortages to support prices The recent slump in dwelling starts means that housing supply will fall short of demand from next year. That suggests that house prices will continue to rise over the coming months. 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
