Filtered by Topic: Trump's second term Use setting Trump's second term
Signs of thaw, but risks remain A little over three weeks before the 90-day tariff pause agreed in Geneva is due to end, the US-China relationship is warming. Trump on Wednesday sounded positive about the prospects of an agreement on fentanyl – the …
18th July 2025
Based on the tariffs that are currently in place, the average US tariff rate is now about 15%, compared to 2.3% in 2024. Recent letters sent to US trade partners threaten to hike reciprocal tariff rates to near April 2nd levels in most cases, which would …
16th July 2025
If President Trump follows through on his threat to impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy, leading to a sharp drop in Russian energy flows, it would invariably lead to higher global energy prices. The impact would probably be greater on …
14th July 2025
President Donald Trump has turned his attention back to trade policy in recent days, threatening to resurrect higher reciprocal tariffs on many countries in another few weeks. He has also indicated that product-specific tariffs on copper, pharmaceuticals …
11th July 2025
There are risks to the Irish economy from potential US tax policy changes but we think they are not as large as they first appear. The country’s large pharmaceutical sector should be fairly resilient if hit with US tariffs. And the government’s fiscal …
10th July 2025
The looming imposition of tariffs on copper by the US will continue to support prices in the US. But for all the attention on the surge in prices there, it won’t be long before fundamentals snap back into focus in markets outside of the US, which in our …
9th July 2025
After stemming the inflow of unauthorised immigration over the Southwest border, the Trump administration now appears to be gradually ramping up the number of detentions and removals. This crackdown is beginning to have a more marked impact on labour …
Trump has confirmed that punitive tariffs on Asian countries will take effect on 1 st August unless trade deals are agreed by the end of the month. Despite the urgency, negotiations could prove difficult if, as some reports are indicating, the US is …
8th July 2025
President Donald Trump has now released “letters” to 14 countries today, announcing that, unless they negotiate a deal over the next few weeks, he will impose reciprocal tariffs on those countries from August 1 st . In most cases, those tariffs that would …
7th July 2025
President Donald Trump has released the first of his “letters” threatening to impose country-specific tariffs of 25% on both Japan and South Korea from August 1 st , if those countries can’t reach a deal with his administration by then. Back in April, …
The makings of an oil market glut The decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace of output hikes in August cements our view that the downward pressure on oil prices will intensify over the next 18 months or so. Admittedly, we assume that OPEC+ will slow the …
Key questions left unanswered The trade agreement announced this week between the US and Vietnam, which imposes tariffs of 20% on Vietnam’s exports to the US (along with 40% for re-routed goods), leaves many questions unanswered. Not least how will …
4th July 2025
With the House seemingly on the cusp of passing the Senate’s revised budget reconciliation bill, the House looks set to support larger fiscal deficits over the next 10 years than it originally supported. The CBO estimated that the Senate bill would add …
3rd July 2025
Vietnam has had one of the weakest hands to play in its trade negotiations with the US. If it is confirmed that it has agreed to a 20% tariff, this isn’t a template that other countries will feel they have to follow. Instead, the key lesson for other …
2nd July 2025
‘Chart of the week’ has to go to our China team, whose effort below was a centrepiece of discussions in our latest client roundtables. It shows exports from China to the US, Europe and the rest of the world up to May. (See Chart 1.) Two key shifts stand …
30th June 2025
Détente is on shaky foundations The understanding reached between the US and China during talks in Geneva and London has now been formalised, with the White House revealing that a written agreement was signed off two days ago. US officials have confirmed …
27th June 2025
Europe is taking Trump’s side on China When President Trump returned to office, his aggressive treatment of traditional allies raised the possibility that the EU and China would come together in defence of free trade. But the opposite is happening: US …
20th June 2025
Occam’s Razor is the idea that the simplest explanation is usually the best. It was in effect last week as the US and China wrapped up two days of trade talks in London. Both sides indicated progress had been made and President Trump concluded on social …
16th June 2025
Beijing continues to prioritise investment The State Council released another policy document this week promising to “further guarantee and improve people’s livelihoods.” But this latest pledge to support households is once again empty. The government has …
13th June 2025
We'll be online discussing the outlook for Latin American economies and financial markets in an online briefing on Wednesday 18th at 10am ET/3pm BST . Sign up here . Overview – Mexico has emerged from the US’s shift to protectionism better than was feared …
12th June 2025
President Trump’s claim that China has agreed to supply the US with “ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS… UP FRONT” might seem to draw a line under concerns about supply shortages and production shutdowns. But restrictions could be dialled back up. And as we set …
A deal with China is done, according to President Trump, but its scope seems to be limited to easing some recent non-tariff restrictions, including China’s rare earth export controls. The wider trade and economic issues that were supposed to be the focus …
11th June 2025
The Federal debt is undoubtedly on an unsustainable path. The debt burden is already close to 100% of GDP and, with the budget deficit likely to remain close to 6% of GDP for the foreseeable future, it would hit 120% of GDP within the next decade. …
9th June 2025
It’s big, but it’s far from beautiful. In fact, the sheer size of the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ that’s currently working its way through Congress is part of what makes it so unwieldy – and so unattractive. Size matters As we’ll argue in a report coming …
If President Trump succeeded in his aim of cutting prescription drug prices by 50% “almost immediately”, it could subtract more than 1%-point from headline PCE inflation. There is little indication of how the administration will achieve that aim, however, …
5th June 2025
Saudi in the driving seat of OPEC+ aggressive shift OPEC+ this week agreed to another 411,000bpd hike to oil output for July and there’s little reason to think that the cartel’s leader, Saudi Arabia, will reverse course on oil policy anytime soon. After …
Court rulings leave trade policy in disarray Although this week’s court ruling – that President Trump doesn’t have the “unbounded authority” to impose universal tariffs on other countries – has been temporarily stayed, there is a fair chance that even …
30th May 2025
US tariffs on China likely to remain high Just a day after the US Court of International Trade ordered the removal of Trump’s Liberation Day and fentanyl-related tariffs, a federal appeals court put that ruling on hold. If the appeals court upholds the …
Our new estimates based on trade in thousands of individual products suggest tha t rerouting helped to offset around half of the fall in China’s exports to the US during the first Trump trade war . If the US continues to impose high tariffs on China, …
29th May 2025
Court ruling adds another layer of uncertainty on Trump’s tariffs The ruling by the three-judge panel of the Federal Court of International Trade blocking President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs will presumably be appealed by the administration all the way …
Although the global tariff environment now appears to be heading towards a far more benign environment than had appeared likely a month or so ago, it still represents a demand shock that will prove a headwind to commodity demand and prices. Against an …
28th May 2025
Donald Trump jolted markets on Friday with a threat to slap steep tariffs on the EU. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing jumped back on the podcast to join David Wilder and unpack whether this is classic brinkmanship – or something more serious. In the …
23rd May 2025
Fewer exports to US but more to other markets Chinese exports have so far held up much better than many had feared in response to US tariffs. In dollar terms they expanded a robust 8.1% in April . And there are few signs of weakness this month. Growth in …
Tariff man triumphant Following the agreement between the US and China to reverse most of the prohibitive tit-for-tat tariffs imposed a month earlier, stock markets have rallied further this week. The S&P 500 is now closing in on the high reached in …
16th May 2025
A deal is perhaps not so imminent Optimism that India was poised to seal a quick trade deal with the US has faded in the past week. Admittedly, Donald Trump still sounds positive about the negotiations – he claimed yesterday that India had offered a “no …
We still expect a slowdown this year The tariff de-escalation agreed at the start of this week is good news for Chinese exporters who were facing a collapse in exports to the US. But we haven’t changed our growth forecasts for China’s economy for a few …
One month on from the peak of the post-“Liberation Day” market turmoil, calm has largely returned and most key asset markets have recovered much, or all, of the ground lost in the days following 2 nd April. Indeed, core money markets never looked …
15th May 2025
Recent actions by the Trump administration have raised doubts about the dollar’s safe-haven credentials, and could contribute to a further decline in its share of global FX reserves. At the same time, European governments, led by Germany, are set to …
13th May 2025
Global Trade Stress Monitor …
The US and China have each suspended for 90 days all but 10% of their Liberation Day tariffs and cancelled other retaliatory tariffs. This is a substantial de-escalation. However, the US still has much higher tariffs on China than on other countries and …
12th May 2025
One deal down. Many, many more to go. Except there was less to that much-touted US-UK trade deal than either government is suggesting and far tougher US talks with China and the EU are still to come. In this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from …
9th May 2025
Thanks to continued optimism over prospective trade deals to reduce US tariff rates, asset markets have generally recouped most of their losses after the 2 nd April tariff announcement. That said, we think that the boost from further trade negotiation …
UK-US trade announcement is no big deal The “full and comprehensive” trade deal between the US and the UK announced this week by President Donald Trump was none of those things. This rush to demonstrate progress on “deals” reveals a rising desperation …
Five months ago, we incorporated a 10% tariff on all UK goods exports to the US in our forecast. That has turned out to be a good call. Despite this week’s UK-US trade deal, the 10% “baseline” tariff remains. (See here for our response to the US-UK trade …
The “full and comprehensive” trade deal between the US and the UK announced in a rush today by President Donald Trump and PM Keir Starmer is no such thing. As Trump admitted in his press conference, the “final details” still need to be “written up in the …
8th May 2025
OPEC+ shifts tack to recapture market share The decision by OPEC+ to deliver another punchy oil output hike in June was not too much of a surprise, but it confirms that the group are shifting tack to a more aggressive policy in order to recapture market …
The trade data available for March and April suggest that a large number of EMs have benefitted from a front-running of tariffs in recent months, particularly those across Asia (Taiwan, Vietnam and India). That said, business surveys have weakened, …
Q1 GDP data showed that most of the world’s economies were still growing at a decent pace ahead of the main tariff hikes and several were boosted by front-running. Consumer and business confidence have deteriorated since then, but there is limited …
Early signs are that Vietnam is doing well as US buyers look to find alternative suppliers outside China. Asia publishes export data much faster than other regions, providing some of the most timely evidence of how trade is being affected by Trump’s …
6th May 2025
Data published for Korea from the past few days suggests the economy remains weak, but that the trade war so far appears to be having a minimal impact. While exports to the US fell in April, the declines were relatively small and were more than made up …
1st May 2025
