Based on the tariffs that are currently in place, the average US tariff rate is now about 15%, compared to 2.3% in 2024. Recent letters sent to US trade partners threaten to hike reciprocal tariff rates to near April 2nd levels in most cases, which would bring the US average tariff rate to 18% (assuming the same exemptions currently in place remain). Our working assumptions is that extensions or deals prevent a big reversion to April 2nd tariffs, and China will continue to face relatively high tariffs. But the few trade deals announced so far suggest that risks are probably skewed towards higher tariffs than what's in our base case.
Some charts in this Chart Pack come from our Tariffs State of Play dashboard or are derived from our Tariff Impact Model (TIM), both of which are located in our Trade Hub.
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