Our new estimates based on trade in thousands of individual products suggest that rerouting helped to offset around half of the fall in China’s exports to the US during the first Trump trade war. If the US continues to impose high tariffs on China, despite Wednesday’s court ruling, then rerouting is likely to be just as significant this time. We will be updating our estimates monthly via a new dashboard, allowing clients to track how trade flows are shifting in response to tariffs.
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