US-China relations are warming, with growing talk of a Xi-Trump summit and gestures of goodwill on both sides. Further de-escalation, including cooperation on fentanyl, could pave the way to a Phase One-style trade deal. But there is plenty, including access to rare earths and geopolitical points of contention, that could derail the relationship. Meanwhile, widespread overcapacity is leading to a pullback in investment by foreign firms in China.
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