Vladimir Putin secured a record victory in Russia’s presidential election over the weekend. The focus now will be on whether this emboldens Putin to devote more resources to the war effort, whether policymakers push through unpopular non-war fiscal …
18th March 2024
Donald Trump’s threat to impose a blanket 10% tariff on all US imports would hit Vietnam hard. But provided they were accompanied by a 60% tariff on all imports from China (as Trump has also threated), then Vietnam should benefit from a new round of Trump …
The past few months have seen risk premia compress across most financial markets, and stress across core financial markets appears lower than at any point since mid-2021. While some lingering risks remain, we think that an emerging bubble in equity …
15th March 2024
Inflation in Switzerland has surprised most other forecasters, including the SNB, this year by falling to just 1.2% in February, which was the ninth month in a row that it has been below 2%. We think this will encourage the SNB to reduce the policy rate …
14th March 2024
Inflation in Norway has fallen more quickly than Norges Bank expected, so at next week’s meeting it is likely to signal that it will cut interest rates sooner than it previously expected, perhaps in Q3. And we think there’s a good chance that it will make …
“New Three” Chinese exports = must-watch data …
There are so many uncertainties that it remains unwise to get carried away by the potential economic boost from the latest wave of weight loss drugs. Nonetheless, if use of the drugs continues to grow rapidly, it could ultimately give a significant boost …
We expect global crude production to rise by around 2.5% in 2025 as the unwinding of OPEC+ voluntary supply cuts stretches all through next year. But non-OPEC+ oil producing nations will also play their part in raising supply even if we think US oil …
The revival of prime retail rental growth in 2023 ended a three-year rental decline for the sector. This likely marks the end of retail’s rental woes and we have nudged up our prime rent forecast for this year, but we doubt there will be a return to the …
We expect the divergence in growth prospects observed in EM Q4 GDP data to be a running theme over the next couple of quarters too. Specifically, we think that some of last year’s outperformers, including Brazil and Mexico, will struggle as one-off tail …
Increase in supply could stall prices Note: Our UK Housing economists will be setting out their updated forecasts and answering client questions in a Drop-In at 0930 GMT this morning, Thursday, 14th March . Register here for the 20-minute online …
13th March 2024
The ECB’s new operational framework for implementing monetary policy, announced this afternoon, was largely in line with our expectations and has no immediate implications for monetary policy. But it does mean that the Bank will maintain a portfolio of …
Our updated remote worker preference scores again highlight Nashville as the most attractive metro for remote workers, while San Jose is the least attractive. The winners continue to be predominantly in the South, reflecting relatively low living costs …
The winner of Russia’s election may be a foregone conclusion but the outlook for its oil and gas sector isn’t. A tightening of sanctions is an ever-present risk and the outcome of the war is uncertain. Our central case is that sanctions don’t prevent …
The devaluation of the Nigerian naira earlier this year appears to have brought it much closer to fair value, which will help to put the balance of payments on a more stable footing. The key now is for the CBN to allow the naira to move in line with …
The online share of retail sales is still above its pre-pandemic trend, but a closer look suggests that is perhaps not as bad for the retail sector as it looks. For example, the share of online clothing sales has declined over the past year, which implies …
Improved valuations suggest that the price correction in prime property is almost done. However, with little scope for bond yields in continental Europe to fall from here and property-to-bond yield spreads still narrow compared to the recent past, we …
The latest data from major advanced economies typically show that unemployment rates are rising and pay pressures are easing. While wage growth is still too high for comfort in most cases, we suspect that further signs of a slowdown will support the case …
12th March 2024
Note: Our UK Housing economists will be setting out their updated forecasts and answering client questions in a Drop-In on Thursday, 14th March . Register here for the 20-minute online briefing. The more granular detail of mortgage lending in Q4 …
Turkey’s balance of payments figures for January showed that the current account deficit continued to narrow, but the drop in capital inflows in recent months is a concern and it appears that this forced the central bank to sell FX reserves. This adds to …
EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. Headlining this, India will become the world’s third-largest economy as soon as 2026. More generally, EMs with rapid population growth, the potential to develop …
11th March 2024
The key risk for Canada’s economy from the US presidential election is that a Trump administration could pull out of the USMCA, leaving Canada subject to any US import tariffs. To avoid that, Canada may have to grant concessions such as increased market …
We will be discussing whether the next government will move the dial on the economy in a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT on Wednesday 13th March. (Register here .) We doubt the big rise in the minimum wage in April will prevent wage growth from …
Out of negative territory but set to remain low CPI inflation turned positive last month for the first time since September, thanks to temporary factors such as the volatility in food and tourism prices around Lunar New Year. But persistent overcapacity …
The latest IPF Consensus Survey shows that forecasters have upwardly revised their 2024 expectations, which are now more in line with our view. Stronger rental growth help drive that improvement and that has also pushed up returns across the forecast …
8th March 2024
Given our view about monetary policy, we expect government bond yields in some developed markets such as the UK to fall markedly this year. In some other places, like the euro-zone, we doubt central banks will have much impact on yields. And we see scope …
7th March 2024
This year is a particularly busy one for elections in the emerging world, and these votes raise the risk of fiscal giveaways that worsen public debt dynamics. We think the risks are greatest in Tunisia, followed by South Africa and Romania. Elsewhere, …
Today’s ECB decision was in line with expectations and President Lagarde’s comments in the press conference reinforce our view that June is the earliest date by which the Bank will start to cut rates. There were no major surprises in today’s ECB policy …
The preliminary China trade data released today suggest that China’s commodities demand was robust in the first two months of the year. Crude imports should stay elevated, but iron ore and coal imports may trend lower over the next few months. Growth in …
The January JOLTS release showed no evidence of a resurgence in labour demand. With forward looking indicators still pointing to a sharp easing in wage growth, there is little to suggest that the labour market will drive renewed inflationary pressures. …
6th March 2024
The Bank of Canada gave little away about the potential timing of interest rate cuts today, although its communications suggest that it is gaining a bit more confidence that inflation is moving in the right direction. We continue to expect the first rate …
The announcement of an agreement over a new IMF package for Egypt, coming on the back of the rate hike and devaluation earlier today, represents a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. While it is still early, Egypt now appears to be on the path out …
China’s government is planning further fiscal loosening and hinting at rate cuts this year, with the aim of boosting economic activity. We think the policy backdrop is sufficient to support commodities demand this year, although for metals used in …
A fall in the participation rate has kept a lid on unemployment in recent months but, given rapid population growth, we continue to expect the unemployment rate to rise to 6.5% later this year. Despite the surge in the population, labour force growth has …
5th March 2024
Commercial real estate investment saw its worst year in over a decade last year. Most brokers seem to expect a recovery in investment activity this year as the Fed cuts interest rates and distressed assets come to market. However, we think the effect of …
Note: Andrew Burrell will be answering questions and highlighting key issues around the size and scale of the recovery in commercial property in a Drop-In on Tuesday, 12th March . Register here for the 20-minute online briefing. Completions in Europe …
Money growth remains weak but is rebounding steadily, with our broader M3 measure recovering to its strongest since mid-2022. But there is no reason to expect this to drive a rebound in inflation. Although M1 continues to decline, the pace of contraction …
4th March 2024
The sharp narrowing in Colombia’s current account deficit last year to its lowest level since the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis looks encouraging, but it was entirely a result of the weakness of domestic demand. As the economy recovers, the …
Despite OPEC+’s decision to extend its voluntary production cuts until the end of June, we still forecast oil prices to drop back by end-2024. We continue to expect OPEC+ to raise output in the latter half of the year and other producers will plug the gap …
Morocco’s improving balance of payments position and the sharp slowdown in inflation should provide the central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), with the confidence to take the next step toward a fully floating dirham. We think the currency will appreciate …
We have traced the government’s target of building 300,000 new homes a year in England back to the 2004 Barker Review. Rerunning the calculations two decades on suggests 385,000 new homes a year would now be necessary to achieve the same aims. In the 2017 …
Our view that the Bank of England will become less concerned by the most persistent part of services CPI inflation suggests that it will cut interest rates in the summer, perhaps in June. But the risk is that non-energy intensive services inflation stays …
The decline in listed firms’ profit margins over the last couple of years despite the tailwind from a weaker yen suggests that improved corporate governance isn’t changing corporate behaviour. While timely data point to a rebound in profitability, the …
The pick-up in the EM manufacturing PMI last month suggests that EM industry continued to strengthen in Q1. But while manufacturers have benefitted from strong demand in some economies (such as India, Turkey and Russia), the overall picture is that it …
1st March 2024
February’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity improved at the start of this year, but that activity in emerging markets continued to outperform that in advanced economies. Meanwhile, Red Sea disruptions don’t seem to be having a …
China’s PMI surveys suggest that manufacturing activity held steady in February and are consistent with stable, if unexciting, growth in commodity demand. That said, we continue to expect a near-term pick-up in activity owing to policy support, which may …
We think that the gold price will rise in each of the next couple of years, driven by the Fed cutting rates a little quicker than is priced into markets, falling US Treasury yields and a softening US dollar. The gold price has taken a small leg-down since …
Recent media attention has focused on the downturn in Germany and the travails of its lenders exposed to the crash in property values both domestically and in the US. While the focus on Europe’s largest market is justified, other major euro-zone markets …
Although world goods trade rose in December, it wasn’t enough to change the fact that 2023 was one of the weakest years for trade in over 70 years, as we forecast a year ago. As for 2024, we expect a bit of a cyclical recovery as the year progresses, but …
The February PMIs for economies in Emerging Asia edged down last month and were mostly inside contractionary territory. The outlook for manufacturing in the region remains poor in the near term, with high interest rates and weak foreign demand likely to …
