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Russia’s gas exports past nadir, crude to keep flowing

The winner of Russia’s election may be a foregone conclusion but the outlook for its oil and gas sector isn’t. A tightening of sanctions is an ever-present risk and the outcome of the war is uncertain. Our central case is that sanctions don’t prevent Russia’s crude from reaching global markets and that natural gas exports will rise in the next few years, but not by enough to make up for lost trade with the EU.

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