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EM growth divergence set to continue

We expect the divergence in growth prospects observed in EM Q4 GDP data to be a running theme over the next couple of quarters too. Specifically, we think that some of last year’s outperformers, including Brazil and Mexico, will struggle as one-off tailwinds fade. Meanwhile, some Central and Eastern European economies should benefit from lower inflation and interest rate cuts. In Emerging Asia, India and Taiwan will be the star performers while China’s recovery fades in the second half of the year.

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