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IPF Consensus Forecasts (Mar. 24.)

The latest IPF Consensus Survey shows that forecasters have upwardly revised their 2024 expectations, which are now more in line with our view. Stronger rental growth help drive that improvement and that has also pushed up returns across the forecast horizon. Beyond this year, our call that yields will not see any falls as the spread against risk-free rates is reestablished means we are more pessimistic about returns. But even the consensus view of total returns of 7.6% p.a. over 2024-28 means this is one of the weakest commercial property recoveries on record.

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