Although world goods trade rose in December, it wasn’t enough to change the fact that 2023 was one of the weakest years for trade in over 70 years, as we forecast a year ago. As for 2024, we expect a bit of a cyclical recovery as the year progresses, but growth over the year as a whole should still be subdued. Meanwhile, shipping costs have stabilised, reinforcing our view that they pose little inflationary threat.
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