Filtered by Topic: Geoeconomics Use setting Geoeconomics
China senses an opportunity as the US disengages China’s pledge to provide tariff-free access to imports from Africa is a clear effort to strengthen ties as the US disengages from the region, and also appears to be a concessions to African leaders …
13th June 2025
The Israeli air strikes on Iran overnight have renewed fears of a widening of conflict in the Middle East. We covered the implications for the oil market and the global economy in a report here , and discussed the latest developments in a Drop-in …
Following Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear and military targets, and Iranian counterstrikes, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing lays out what investors should be watching for across macro and markets. Among other issues, Neil also explains: Why – …
The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced than we’d previously thought (rather than skewed to the …
Fresh Israel-Iran strike worries rattle oil markets Reports have surfaced that Israel is planning an imminent strike on Iran and/or its proxies in Iraq, prompting oil prices to jump over the past 24 hours. But there are reasons to think that any fallout …
12th June 2025
President Trump’s claim that China has agreed to supply the US with “ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS… UP FRONT” might seem to draw a line under concerns about supply shortages and production shutdowns. But restrictions could be dialled back up. And as we set …
A deal with China is done, according to President Trump, but its scope seems to be limited to easing some recent non-tariff restrictions, including China’s rare earth export controls. The wider trade and economic issues that were supposed to be the focus …
11th June 2025
US tariffs on China likely to remain high Just a day after the US Court of International Trade ordered the removal of Trump’s Liberation Day and fentanyl-related tariffs, a federal appeals court put that ruling on hold. If the appeals court upholds the …
30th May 2025
This report is part of our Future of Europe series. Read more analysis, explore the supporting data, and learn about our broader European coverage on the dedicated Future of Europe page. Europe is being buffeted by geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts but, …
Yesterday’s US court ruling has added yet more uncertainty to the EU-US trade relationship and at face value has weakened President Trump’s position. But the risk of tariffs remains very real not least because sectoral tariffs, which are unaffected by the …
29th May 2025
In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade (CIT) tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the Republican-stacked Supreme Court. The upside risks …
SA budget merely presses pause on fiscal debate South Africa’s finance minister appears to have succeeded – at the third time of asking – at delivering a 2025 Budget that will make it through parliament. But it seems almost certain that tensions within …
23rd May 2025
This report is part of our Future of Europe series. Read more analysis, explore the supporting data, and learn about our broader European coverage on the dedicated Future of Europe page. The push to enlarge the EU has gained momentum since the start …
20th May 2025
The flurry of diplomatic activity by both the US and China this week underscores that geopolitical alliances in parts of the emerging world are fluid. We suspect that most countries in Latin America and the Middle East will try to straddle the China-US …
16th May 2025
The polls ahead of presidential elections in Romania and Poland this Sunday point to diverging political paths for the two largest economies in Central and Eastern Europe over the coming years. We’ll be discussing the implications of Sunday’s election …
The Gulf’s trillion dollar shopping list Headlines have been dominated this week by US President Trump’s dealmaking in the Gulf, striking nearly $1trn of potential deals for investment and trade over the coming years. There’s a big question mark about …
15th May 2025
The decision by OPEC+ to follow up May’s faster rise in oil production with a similar increase in June suggests a change in tack on oil policy towards recapturing market share. This will provide a boost to GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 via higher output in …
The recent climbdown has left the effective US tariff rate on the rest of the world at around 15% as opposed to the 27% which was threatened at the height of this year’s trade war. While this is still the highest since the 1930s, it is unlikely to cause a …
13th May 2025
Donald Trump has arrived in the Middle East and changes in the power and influence of the region’s actors mean that he will find a very different region to the one during his last visit in 2017. Iran and Russia (and, indirectly, China) are nursing blows …
Global Trade Stress Monitor …
The US and China have each suspended for 90 days all but 10% of their Liberation Day tariffs and cancelled other retaliatory tariffs. This is a substantial de-escalation. However, the US still has much higher tariffs on China than on other countries and …
12th May 2025
Tariffs aren't the only headwind facing exporters The US-China trade talks taking place in Geneva this weekend could pave the way for a partial rollback in tariffs. Trump has continued to rule out doing so without anything in return. And China’s …
9th May 2025
OPEC+ shifts tack to recapture market share The decision by OPEC+ to deliver another punchy oil output hike in June was not too much of a surprise, but it confirms that the group are shifting tack to a more aggressive policy in order to recapture market …
8th May 2025
This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown. The deal may provide more US support for Ukraine in peace talks, but Russia and Ukraine remain …
1st May 2025
This Update answers several key questions on critical minerals and the economic implications. In short, there is no quick fix to securing access to minerals given the extent of China’s advantage across the value chain. And while volatile mineral prices …
30th April 2025
President Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought substantial shifts in US policy. The next 100 will start to reveal whether his presidency is causing a realignment of the global economy. There are two key questions: will most countries be able to …
29th April 2025
The US steps up its peace deal efforts The US has been pushing harder over the past week to achieve a peace deal that Russia is willing to accept. But the more concessions that are offered to Putin, the less willing Ukraine is likely to be on board with a …
25th April 2025
Leadership signals policy flexibility in the face of trade uncertainty The Politburo has just concluded its April meeting which, as usual, focused on economic affairs. The communique signalled that monetary policy easing is still on its way and that …
Gulf reins in oil overproducers Recent moves to hike OPEC+ oil output quotas but make overproducers cut production suggests that the Gulf economies are taking a firmer line on regaining global oil market share. But fresh falls in oil prices could scupper …
17th April 2025
The Spring Meetings of the World Bank and IMF take place next week under the cloud not just of US trade protectionism but also the Trump administration’s seeming hostility towards multilateral institutions – and the threat of US withdrawal. An end to (or …
Punitive tariffs have the potential to cause a substantial fall in US imports from China – a 60% tariff, for example, could cut imports from China by about a third over the next two years, with further falls after that. Some countries that face lower US …
15th April 2025
Available data don’t give a definitive answer to whether sales by Chinese institutions contributed to the recent volatility in the US bond market. But China’s state managers of foreign assets still appear to have more than half of their portfolios …
14th April 2025
Nobody knows where US tariff policy will ultimately land but one thing is starting to become clear: the Trump administration has China in its sights. The exemptions for various electronic goods, including smartphones and laptops, announced over the …
President Trump’s trade war has created material downside risks for the global economy. Our forecasts assume that tariffs on most countries outside China will stay at 10% and retaliation by other governments will be moderate. In this scenario, global GDP …
10th April 2025
Enter your own universal and specific tariff scenarios and see the impact on the effective tariff rate, inflation and GDP. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of …
Unless they are rolled back, the latest US tariff hikes mean that China’s shipments to the US will more than halve over the coming years, even assuming the renminbi weakens to 8.00/$. This will reduce China’s GDP by somewhere between 1.0-1.5% depending on …
9th April 2025
Direct hit from Trump tariffs to be limited African economies will, for the most part, be relatively unaffected by US President Trump’s tariff announcement this week, at least directly. But it may cause indirect harm through lower commodity prices. And …
4th April 2025
MENA can’t escape Trump’s trade war The Executive Order signed by US President Trump yesterday brought a flat 10% tariff on all countries’ exports to the US with an additional reciprocal rate for some economies. While the Middle East may be less …
3rd April 2025
Mexico got off lightly from the tariffs announced by President Trump yesterday and the overall hit to the economy from US trade measures may be a bit smaller than we’d initially thought. Even so, we think growth will be very modest this year, perhaps just …
We’d already assumed substantial US tariffs on China in our forecasts. But the latest hikes take them even higher than we had anticipated. The economic hit to China will range between 0.5-1.0% of GDP depending on what happens to the exchange rate. China …
Whilst buying gold may reduce central banks’ overall exposure to the dollar, we don’t think that the surge in central bank gold demand reflects a severe loss of confidence in the greenback. Instead, the perception of gold itself as a safe haven is …
31st March 2025
The US would have to exert a lot of pressure to coerce most major countries into putting large tariffs on goods from China . Curtailing trade with China would have an economic cost and even countries that have closer economic ties with the US would still …
Motor vehicle tariffs to boost inflation The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on most motor vehicle and some parts imports is an upside risk to our inflation forecasts. As a reminder, our forecasts have long been based on the assumption that Trump would …
28th March 2025
Autos now in the crosshairs The Trump administration’s announcement of a 25% import tariff on autos and some auto parts will have a particularly large impact on Hungary and Slovakia. Our detailed response on Thursday to the tariff news can be found here . …
Exports will take a hit soon The US vehicle tariffs announced this week will do little damage to China as its auto exports to the US account for less than 0.05% of GDP. But the “ reciprocal tariffs ” that President Trump is due to announce on Wednesday …
In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are most exposed with up to 1.6% of GDP at risk. But the …
27th March 2025
It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the Trump administration’s ideas to transform the entire …
25th March 2025
Because the concept of ‘reciprocal tariffs’ is merely a cover for the White House to impose whatever tariffs it likes, they pose a potentially considerable threat to world trade. This Update provides answers to ten questions regarding what we know, as …
Could a ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ fix what ails the US balance of payments? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the show this week to tackle the various ideas around what the Trump administration could do to address long-standing global imbalances. He …
21st March 2025
Erdogan alarms investors The arrest of a leading opposition politician in Turkey on Wednesday triggered a major sell-off in the country’s stock market and currency. Events are in flux at the moment, but there are three takeaways. The first is that the …
