Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
The decision by OPEC+ to follow up May’s faster rise in oil production with a similar increase in June suggests a change in tack on oil policy towards recapturing market share. This will provide a boost to GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 via higher output in hydrocarbon sectors. But lower oil prices will cause budget and current account positions to deteriorate. This is likely to prompt a more concrete turn to fiscal consolidation that weighs on non-oil activity. Outside of the Gulf, there’s renewed hopes of easing tensions in Syria and Iran following Donald Trump’s visit to the region.
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