US Commercial Property
...

Major Apartment Markets Outlook (Q2 2021)

With cities reopening apartment demand will see a substantial rise this year, boosted by the arrival of households who delayed a move last year. Vacancy rates will fall back in all six major cities covered in this Outlook with those hit hardest during the pandemic, NYC and D.C., enjoying the most vigorous recovery in demand as tenants return. Strong prospects for NOI growth mean yields will either edge back or hold steady this year, driving substantial capital growth in all the cities. Beyond that, a gradual rise in yields and shift to larger apartments will weigh on returns. But even San Francisco, which will suffer from its high concentration of tech workers, should see total average returns of around 5.0% p.a. from 2021-25. At the other end of the spectrum, D.C. will outperform with average total returns of 8.5% p.a.
Matthew Pointon Senior Property Economist
Continue reading

More from US Commercial Property

US Commercial Property Data Response

Commercial Property Lending (Sep.)

Outstanding real estate debt increased for the fourth consecutive month in September, thanks to net lending turning a corner in the residential sector and accelerating in the commercial sector.

15 October 2021

US Commercial Property Update

Four likely winners in retail

The retail sector appears to be turning a corner, and we think that convenience-oriented Neighbourhood and Community (N&C) centres, out-of-town retail, “destination”-type malls and retail located in “desirable” southern metros are likely to be the sector’s winners over the next few years.

8 October 2021

US Commercial Property Update

Will remote working migrants drive office demand?

In-migration to southern metros with relatively low living costs and high desirability will be positive for office demand in those same metros. We think firms will be encouraged to set up offices in those locations given the growth in their skilled labour pools and the potential economic benefits. This means that, at the margin, rather than office-using jobs attracting talent, the location of the talent will attract firms.

4 October 2021

More from Matthew Pointon

US Housing Market Chart Book

Home demand drops as prices surge

Despite mortgage rates seeing little movement in recent months, mortgage applications for home purchase have dropped to their lowest level since April last year. That implies home sales have further to fall. Booming house prices, which reached a record high 15% y/y in April, and a shortage of inventory are constraining sales. While low mortgage rates mean affordability is still historically favourable, lenders are not easing lending standards and that will be weighing on purchasing power. By contrast, rental demand is recovering as cities have reopened. The recovery in the labour market will cut arrears, and strong earnings will help boost rental growth. Total apartment returns will average a healthy 6% p.a from 2021-25.

7 July 2021

US Housing Market Update

Valuations still reasonable despite house price boom

The housing market hit a milestone in April, with real house prices rising above the previous peak recorded during the boom of the mid-2000s. But that doesn’t mean valuations are at dangerous levels. House prices look far more reasonable when gains in incomes and falls in mortgage interest rates are taken into account. With house price growth now set to slow, the prospect of another bubble forming is therefore low.

22 June 2021

US Housing Market Update

Surge in home equity won’t trigger credit easing

The home equity share has surged to a 31-year high, which in the past may have persuaded mortgage lenders to ease credit conditions. But Ability to Repay regulations brought in after the financial crisis have broken the link between home equity and lending standards, and banks are not planning to ease standards in the third quarter. That supports our call for a significant slowdown in house price growth over the second half of the year.

17 June 2021
↑ Back to top