Implications of living with COVID

Many countries are increasingly well-placed to ‘live with COVID’ and will be able to avoid the need for occasional lockdowns. However, this requires reaching and maintaining a high level of immunity in the community and there is a risk that this will be out of reach for the poorest economies.
Justin Chaloner Senior Economist
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Long Run Update

The implications of accelerated renewable electricity use

Accelerated adoption of renewable electricity will cause demand and prices of coal and natural gas to fall over the long run. While we think the global economy will handle this transition well, there will be some winners and losers depending on which commodities countries import or export.

15 October 2021

Long Run Returns Monitor

Long Run Returns Monitor (Sep.)

Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this publication are as of 27th September 2021. A more detailed explanation of our views can be found in our annual Long Run Economic Outlook and Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook.

29 September 2021

Long Run Update

Are we on the way to a bigger state?

While it may take years or decades before the evidence is clear, there are tentative signs that the pandemic has accelerated a shift towards a bigger role for the state in advanced economies.

24 September 2021

More from Justin Chaloner

Long Run Update

The implications of the pandemic decline in births

Birth rates have fallen in several advanced economies during the pandemic. Although we think that fertility rates will bounce back and there won’t be material long-term impacts, this presents a small downside risk to some of our long run forecasts for these advanced economies and may have implications for future policymaking.

23 July 2021

Long Run Update

Higher female participation to help India outperform

There is typically more scope for female participation rates to rise and boost labour supply in EMs. This is particularly so in India and is one reason why we expect its economy to outperform in the long run.

19 May 2021

Long Run Update

China & US censuses: don’t count on catch-up

The 2020 US and China censuses add to the reasons why we think China will struggle to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy. China’s birth rate has continued to fall and the population will peak earlier than previously thought, so demographics will become an even larger drag on GDP growth.

11 May 2021
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