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UAE exceptionalism, Egypt reshuffle, Saudi mortgages

The decision by OPEC+ to roll over oil production cuts until October will reduce economic growth in the Gulf this year, but the UAE has emerged a clear winner. Higher oil output there will lead to a sharp acceleration in growth in 2025, allowing it to retain its position as the fastest growing Gulf economy. Elsewhere, Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle is likely to cement the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation and the broader policy shift. Finally, Saudi mortgage lending has expanded for the first time in nearly three years, which should help to increase home ownership in the Kingdom.

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